News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • After rising back above the 1.60% level to a high around 1.63% earlier today, US 10yr Treasury yields have moved back lower. They are now trading around an intraday low of 1.56%. $USD https://t.co/5hQglZl4fU
  • Discord has walked away from sale talks with $MSFT now eyeing potential IPO
  • here we go, webinar starting right now 1) USD Q2 Weakness 2) Gold brewing bullish potential? 3) Stonks through initial earnings outlays https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/643096611 https://t.co/ZzY8QuoCko
  • The Euro has slipped to an intraday low amidst the German Greens surging to a lead over Merkel's CDU in a new poll. $EUR $USD https://t.co/gfvNseRNvc
  • $USDCAD has strengthened today, rising to a one week high near the 1.2600 level. The Canadian Dollar has suffered amidst a drop in oil prices and extended travel restrictions. $USD $CAD https://t.co/O2z7grrFYi
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.55%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.61%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/RVkYfiOzPq
  • In line with the general risk-off sentiment, oil prices have come under notable selling pressure with both Brent and WTI crude futures falling 2-2.5%. Get your #crudeoil market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/K0zJL8BFj1 https://t.co/wMn3kNFhwC
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.49% Silver: 0.42% Oil - US Crude: -1.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/CqYIho6z47
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.08% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.07% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.17% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.23% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/GC3sr4bk5B
  • - Recovery in the US is improving - The increase in Covid cases is concerning, but vaccines give optimism for a return to more normal conditions later this year
COT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling Continues

COT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling Continues

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Euro large specs increase net long towards record long
  • Canadian dollar net position among large specs flips to net long for first time since mid-March
  • Large silver traders take net long down to smallest in nearly a year; a flip short at long-term trend-line could be timely contrarian indicator

Check out the Q3 Forecasts for our outlook on currencies, commodities, and equity indices.

Every Friday the Commitment of Traders (COT) report is released, showing futures traders’ positioning as it stands for the week ending on Tuesday. In the table below are the net positions of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.); the change in their positioning from the prior week and where the net position stands relative to its 52-week range.

COT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling Continues

Notable developments

Euro – Large speculators continue to add to their net long exposure, building towards the largest position since May 2011. The largest net long on record was recorded in 2007 at over 119k contracts. Overall, their position since flipping long back on the week of May 12 has been quite profitable with the euro gaining over 8 big-figures since. We noted back then the strong track record of the trend-following crowd and their ability historically to correctly identify trends in the single-currency. However, with the euro coming up on resistance and price becoming stretched, the recent build towards a record long may indicate in the not-too-distant future the trend in the euro is set to pause at the least, if not have a material reversal. Price action isn’t suggesting this to be the case just yet, but conditions are ripe for such an occurrence.

COT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling Continues

Canadian dollar – Back in early May when we looked at the record short position held by large specs we said, “It’s an extreme which suggests the trend may be saturated and ripe for a reversal.” Since then CAD has turned aggressively higher versus USD and with it the market has been covering their record short at a feverish pace. As of last week, the net position flipped to net long for the first time since March. Perhaps this won’t turn out to have been the timeliest flip given how far CAD has rallied and resistance not far ahead.

COT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling Continues

Silver – No other market has seen a bigger relative unwinding than the one in progress in the silver futures market. The decline since April spurred large speculators to take their net position down from a record 103k contracts to only 9k. It’s the smallest long position in nearly a year, and while we haven’t seen a net short position since as far back as April 2003, with more pressure on the precious metal we could get there in the not-too-distance future. With a 14-year trend-line not far below, a flip to net short after unwinding an enormous long position may present a timely contrarian indicator.

COT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling Continues

The COT report is a longer-term sentiment indicator – for a short-term view on sentiment, check out IG Client Sentiment data.

Other futures contracts and large speculator positioning:

COT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling ContinuesCOT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling ContinuesCOT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling ContinuesCOT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling ContinuesCOT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling ContinuesCOT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling ContinuesCOT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling ContinuesCOT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling ContinuesCOT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling ContinuesCOT: Euro Large Specs Long & Strong, CAD Traders Flip Long, Silver Selling Continues

Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES