News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.69% Gold: -1.54% Silver: -2.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/tb0rhPEn0F
  • Heads Up:🇵🇱 Interest Rate Decision (MAR) due at 15:00 GMT (15min) Actual: 0.1% Expected: 0.1% Previous: 0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-03
  • Last week's gold report...' $1,743/oz. may prove temporary support ahead of $1,700/oz big figure support and ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1,689.7/oz.' #gold https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/02/26/Gold-Price-XAUUSD-Outlook-Treading-on-Thin-Ice-as-US-Treasury-Yields-Heat-Up.html
  • The February rally in $WTI Crude Oil has struggled to continue in March. After rising from 52.00 at the beginning of February to a high above 63.00, WTI has edged back downwards. The commodity has recently consolidated between the 59.00 and 61.00 levels. $OIL $USO https://t.co/NzJZIvgkQn
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Harker Speech due at 15:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-03
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (FEB) due at 15:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 58.7 Previous: 58.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-03
  • Heads Up:🇵🇱 Interest Rate Decision (MAR) due at 15:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.1% Previous: 0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-03
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB Guindos Speech due at 15:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-03
  • Gilt yields on the rise as DMO issuance in 2021/2 jumps to GBP296 billion, busting estimates of GBP250 billion #gilts #DMO https://t.co/D6i9U4mU5c
  • $Gold back at the lows, breaching below the 38.2 of the 18-20 major move. This thing hasn't been able to hold a bid at all of late, looks like a lot of those flows going over to $btc or other related cryptos next support from that structure around 1618 https://t.co/b0pin7SPS3 https://t.co/TL5elY25Qk
US Dollar Rises from the Dead as VIX Soars, Stocks Drop Sharply

US Dollar Rises from the Dead as VIX Soars, Stocks Drop Sharply

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD PRICE ACTION BUILDS SUPPORT AS VIX INDEX ‘FEAR-GAUGE’ SPIKES HIGHER & STOCKS PLUNGE

  • US Dollar searches for a base as the DXY Index bounces off the 96.00-price level
  • S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq turn sharply lower despite dovish FOMC rate guidance
  • VIX ‘fear-gauge’ surges after another week of 20-million continuing jobless claims

US Dollar finally catches a bid and looks to reverse some of its 4% decline recorded since its May 25 swing high. Just 24-hours after the latest FOMC announcement, which widely reiterated the central bank’s dovish commitment to keeping interest rates lower for longer and its liquidity spigot flowing steadily at the current pace, the broader US Dollar has gained about 0.75% as measured by the DXY Index.

Introduction to Forex News Trading
Introduction to Forex News Trading
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Introduction to Forex News Trading
Get My Guide

The rebound attempt staged by USD price action largely corresponds with a return of demand for safe-haven currencies and other anti-risk assets like US Treasuries. This seems to follow the sharp selloff staged by major stock market indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 as trader sentiment deteriorates sharply since the Fed meeting.

US 500 BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 9% -3% 2%
Weekly 19% -6% 5%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

US DOLLAR, VIX INDEX, S&P 500 PRICE CHART: 5-MINUTE TIME FRAME (11 JUNE 2020 INTRADAY)

US Dollar Price Chart VIX Index S&P 500 Market News

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

Perhaps a not-so optimistic tone from Fed Chair Powell regarding the potential long-term structural damage done to the jobs market could serve as one fundamental driver for fading risk appetite. This was reiterated by continuing jobless claims data released this morning, which detailed more than 20-million Americans filing for unemployment insurance for the sixth consecutive week, and counters the VIX implosion post-Jobs report last Friday. Similarly, the lack of another extensive liquidity package could have underwhelmed investors who seem increasingly reliant on Fed balance sheet growth to propel stocks higher.

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

Although dovish FOMC action and outlook typically present fundamental headwinds for the US Dollar, a return of bearish market sentiment could strongarm USD price action higher thanks to the Greenback’s premier safe-haven status. Another fundamental theme possibly contributing to the return of US Dollar demand might include dissipating coronavirus optimism as the number of COVID-19 cases continue climbing.

US DOLLAR INDEX & SPOT AUD/USD PRICE CHART OVERLAID: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (24 MAR TO 11 JUN 2020)

DXY Index Price Chart US Dollar Outlook

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

Looking ahead to Friday’s trading session, spot AUD/USD price action could set the tone as APAC comes online and provides confirmation or nullification of the latest breakdown in risk appetite. In turn, this might serve as bellwether as to where the broader US Dollar heads next. Also noteworthy, US consumer sentiment data is due Friday, June 12 at 14:00 GMT and could provide another fundamental driver with potential to weigh on appetite for risk and the direction of the US Dollar.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES