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Cross Asset Forecasts for Q2 2022

Cross Asset Forecasts for Q2 2022

Brendan Fagan, Contributor


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Fundamental Forecasts:

US Dollar Forecast Q2 2022: Dollar Rate Hikes, Conversion and Safety Appeal

It is difficult to tell what role the Dollar will play in the global financial system heading into the second quarter of 2022. On the one hand, traditional risk assets have held back the tide of a more prolific collapse while interest rate expectations have exploded higher.

AUD Forecast Q2 2022: Commodities and Central Banks in Focus

The Australian Dollar made an 18-month low in January, eclipsing the November 2020 nadir of 0.6991 by a small margin.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Q2 2022: Still Not Immune from Market Risk

Q1 hasn't been easy for investors. In fact, the stock market had one of its worst starts to a year in history, rivaled by the GFC and great depression. Of course, Bitcoin as a high beta asset hasn't been immune to the drop in stocks, falling over 13% (at the time of writing) from three months ago.

Equities Q2 2022 Forecast: Fed Policy Remains the Biggest Risk for Equity Markets

A volatile first quarter for US equities, which grappled with not only an inflation-fighting Federal Reserve but also increased geopolitical tensions.

EUR Forecast Q2 2022: A Badly Battered Euro May Find a Lifeline in Ukraine, But Can an Upswing Last?

The Euro suffered punishing losses in the first quarter of 2022. The currency is on pace to shed almost 3 percent against an average of its major counterparts, marking the worst three-month performance in 7 years.

GBP Forecast Q2 2022: The Bank of England's Inflation and Growth Puzzle

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise UK interest rates further in the second quarter of 2022 as the UK central bank tries to stem soaring prices pressures. The BoE has already lifted the Bank Rate to 0.75% from 0.1% in late 2021 and money markets are currently pricing in 125 basis points of additional rate hikes this year.

Gold Price Forecast Q2 2022: Outlook Proves Mixed

There's no two-ways about it: gold prices outperformed our expectations in Q1 22. Our rationale for not taking a bullish outlook on gold was, and still is, well-grounded: central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have begun to winddown pandemic-era stimulus efforts, with rate hike cycles just getting started.

JPY Forecast Q2 2022: Will Inflation Surpass the Bank of Japan’s Target?

The anti-risk Japanese Yen put in a dismal performance during the first quarter of 2022, particularly as March wrapped up. A majors-based Japanese Yen Index that averages JPY against USD, AUD, GBP and EUR fell as the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury yield climbed.

Oil Price Forecast Q2 2022: Robust Demand Still Met with Limited Supply

The price of oil spiked to a fresh yearly high ($130.50) in March amid the disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. Current market conditions may lead to higher crude prices as expectations for strong demand are met with indications of limited supply.

Technical Forecasts:

Australian Dollar Q2 Technical Forecast: All Eyes on the Bull Flag!

The Australian dollar has been one of the most resilient currencies against the dollar through Q1 2022, primarily via the broad commodity price rally and strong trade relations with China.

Equities Q2 Technical Forecast: Indices Have a Serious Choice to Make After Q1 Volatility

Global indices experienced serious volatility through Q1 2022, disrupting otherwise-extraordinary bullish – or generally buoyant – trends.

Euro Q2 Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Eyes Further Weakness on Ugly Technicals

To explain the euro’s recent behavior, it is important to provide some historical context.

British Pound Q2 Technical Forecast: Can Pound Sterling Overcome Technical Hurdles?

For the British Pound, the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar and the hawkish rhetoric of the Federal Reserve have supported the greenback, limiting GBP/USD gains.

Gold Price Q2 Technical Forecast: Bulls Rebuffed

There was a quick flicker of excitement in Gold last quarter, and that ran parallel to the same fear that was injected into the global order as Russia invaded Ukraine.

Japanese Yen Q2 Technical Forecast: USD/JPY May Target 2015 High Next

The Japanese Yen approached the first quarter of the year with a huge loss north of 5%, with much of that move occurring in March when USD/JPY rose above the high-profile, psychological 120 level.

Oil Price Q2 Technical Forecast: WTI to Retest $130

In Q1, crude oil prices continued the long-term bullish trend that began after WTI futures briefly spiked into negative territory in 2020. The US benchmark traded within a neat pitchfork throughout 2021, registering multiple bounces within its confines.

US Dollar Q2 Technical Forecast: USD Bullish Channel, 20-Year Highs in Sight

The Greenback set a swing high on the final day of Q1 2021 trade before reversing through the first half of Q2, eventually finding support around the same 90 psychological level that had held the lows earlier in the year. But after bulls got back in the driver’s seat in June, a bullish trend began to develop that remains in effect today.

Bitcoin Price Q2 Technical Forecast: Quiet Trading Won’t Last Long

Bitcoin sold off hard during Q4, but then during the first frame of 2022 it underwent a period of relatively directionless trading. Contracting price action over the last three months could continue to make things even choppier in the near-term.

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