We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Oil Price Needs Support, Eyes US-China Trade Deal

Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Oil Price Needs Support, Eyes US-China Trade Deal

2020-01-11 07:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Crude Oil 2-Hour Chart

Crude Oil Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

  • Oil bulls rattled after US-Iran risk turns lower.
  • US-China trade signing may provide support after recent bear run.
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

Oil Slumps 10% in Three Days – Will US-China Trade Deal Bring Stability?

My crude oil forecast for next week is neutral with a possible partial retrace of this week’s sell-off back to trend.

Oil is now trading near its lowest level in one-month as risk-adverse assets slumped after the US and Iran backed away from further military action in the Middle East. With supply fears eased, oil lost its recent bid and now looks for the next driver of price action. A potential flare-up in Middle East tension however remains on the cards, leaving bearish oil sentiment at risk.

Strait of Hormuz: The World’s Most Important Oil Chokepoint

The long-running US-China trade war has hit global economies hard and weighed heavily on the price of oil. OPEC supply cuts have tempered further losses but an end to the near two-year trade spat is needed to help reboot global growth. This Wednesday both sides have committed to signing phase one of a trade deal which would see tariffs rolled back, markets re-opened and a pledge by China to buy an additional $80 billion of US agricultural products over the next two years. While the market already knows the basic make-up of the deal, any deviation from these knowns, or any additional measures, will move risk markets and the price of oil.

The US Senate could also ratify the Unites States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) next week, with the new deal succeeding the current North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This ratification should also bring a degree of stability to markets, although the impact of any signing is likely to be limited.

For a full rundown of all market moving economic data and events see the DailyFX Calendar

The daily chart shows that the recent sell-off has seen oil fall through its supportive trend started off the October 3 low just below $51.0/bbl. This trend line will now act as resistance until crude oil breaks and closes above. The CCI indicator does indicate that oil is currently oversold.

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (January 2019 - January 10, 2020)

Crude Oil Chart
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
Get My Guide

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.