News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The Federal Reserve rate decision is likely to sway the near-term outlook for the price of gold as the central bank appears to be on track to scale back monetary support. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DavidJSong here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here:
  • RT @FxWestwater: Japanese Yen Forecast: JPY Crosses Eye BoJ, CPI as Haven Flows Bolster Yen Strength Link: https:/…
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • Stocks appear to be in a corrective phase but could get put to the test; levels and lines to watch in the days ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here:
Crude Oil Price Outlook Bearish on OPEC Output, Fed, US-China Trade

Crude Oil Price Outlook Bearish on OPEC Output, Fed, US-China Trade

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist
Crude Oil 2-Hour Price Chart

Oil Fundamental Forecast: Bearish

  • Crude oil prices rose on earnings reports and the latest EIA inventory data
  • Oil has OPEC output report, Fed, Brexit and US-China tensions awaiting
  • On balance, risks for the commodity appear tilted to the downside ahead

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

Crude Oil Prices Wrap

Last week, we saw some of the most aggressive advances in crude oil prices since the middle of September. On Wednesday, oil rallied just shy of 3 percent. The commodity rose as the latest earnings reports from the United States helped fuel the S&P 500 and risk trends higher. Meanwhile, the latest EIA inventory report showed an unexpected drawdown, adding fuel to the advance in the sentiment-linked commodity.

Oil Event Risk – OPEC Output Report, Federal Reserve, Brexit, US-China Tensions, Earnings

WTI crude has a plethora of event risk waiting for it in the week ahead, likely to bring forward some much-needed volatility. I say this because on balance, it is practically unchanged from where prices started in February, about 9 months ago. Since then, oil has had to contend with divergent fundamental forces. Primary among these is the conflict between coordinated supply reduction and the risk of fading demand.

The week ahead is arguably going to place more emphasis on the latter. Regarding the former, we do have the next Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) survey of output for October. While it may continue to show fading production by the cartel to boost prices, the focus is probably on the December OPEC meeting. Earlier this month, it was reported that the group and its allies may favor deeper cuts.

Yet, despite their efforts, crude oil prices have struggled to find sustained upward momentum. This likely stems from deteriorating global economic prospects. The IMF recently cut world GDP growth estimates to their weakest since the financial crisis. This is as manufacturing continues to see a synchronized downturn around the world, particularly in Europe and more recently in the United States.

This bodes ill for fuel demand. In particular, you can see crude oil’s close correlation to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index – another barometer for risk trends - on the chart below. I have also overlaid its price action with OPEC production. As such, while oil may also see some volatility from the next EIA inventory report, the focus will more likely be on sentiment.

On this front, key risks threatening the commodity are the Fed rate decision, ongoing Brexit uncertainty and whether US-China tensions escalate. On Wednesday, the US central bank is expected to deliver another 25bp cut. October 31 is the deadline for the UK to leave the EU unless an extension is granted. Meanwhile, US concern over Chinese actions in Hong Kong risk derailing trade talks.

Taking into consideration the latter and uncertainties around whether a possible US-China trade deal signing at next month’s APEC meeting in Chile, the Fed may reiterate their data-dependent approach. That may undermine aggressive easing bets, sinking the S&P 500 and along with it, the sentiment-linked commodity. On balance, the risks seem tilted to the downside for crude oil prices in the week ahead.

Crude Oil – OPEC Cuts versus Risk Trends

Crude Oil - OPEC Cuts vs Risk Trends

Oil Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.