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Weekly Trading Forecast: Is the "Trump Trade" Back in Play?

Weekly Trading Forecast: Is the "Trump Trade" Back in Play?

2017-01-07 03:17:00
Ilya Spivak, James Stanley, David Cottle, Renee Mu, Michael Boutros, Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Tyler Yell, CMT,
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Financial markets spent most of last week unwinding "Trump trade" bets but December's US jobs data seemed to rekindle the late-2016 narrative. Will it continue in the week ahead?

US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar May Turn Defensive Anew on Cautious Fed Comments

The US Dollar found a lifeline in upbeat wage growth data having been battered by the unwinding of the “Trump trade”. Upcoming Fed-speak may put it back on the defensive.

Euro Forecast - Improved Fundamentals in ST Insulating Euro from LT Political Concerns

An improvement in the Euro’s fundamental drivers in the short-term is helping pad the currency from longer-term political concerns, mainly about the upcoming slate of elections (Dutch, French, Italian, and German) in 2017.

British Pound Forecast - BOE: Economic Forecasting in a World ’Tipped Upside Down’

This week, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Mr. Andy Haldane issued a mea culpa around the bank’s forecasts and expectations around Brexit, saying ‘it’s a fair cop to say the profession is to some degree in crisis.’

Yen Looks To Yield Spread For Direction, Trump Calls Out Toyota

Strong US wage growth data from last week’s December jobs report may have solidified the Fed’s pace for hikes and in turn made it difficult for the Yen to gain traction through USD/JPY.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Uptrend Should Survive Light-Data Week

The nascent Australian Dollar uptrend should remain intact through a relatively light week for scheduled economic data on both sides of the Pacific.

Chinese Yuan Forecast - USD/CNH Eyes on HIBOR, Onshore Policy

The Chinese Yuan was on a roller-coaster ride this week: the offshore CNH gained over 1% against the U.S. Dollar on both Wednesday and Thursday, and then lost -0.6% as of 11:00am EST on Friday. The offshore Yuan also traded higher than the onshore Yuan, which was uncommon.

Gold Forecast - Gold Recovery Faces First Hurdle Ahead of Fed Speak; Retail Sales

Gold prices continued to march higher for a second consecutive week with the precious metal rallying more than 3% to trade at 1176 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance comes amid weakness in the greenback and alongside continued gains in global equity markets.

Weekly Trading Forecast: Is the "Trump Trade" Back in Play?

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on theDailyFX Webinar Calendar.

See the DailyFX 1Q 2017 forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

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