News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) due at 04:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.45% Previous: 1.33%
  • (ASEAN Fundy) US Dollar Outlook: SGD, THB, IDR, PHP May Benefit on Slowing Covid Growth, Soft NFPs #USD #ASEAN $USDSGD $USDTHB $USDIDR $USDPHP
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.12% Silver: -0.30% Oil - US Crude: -1.23% View the performance of all markets via
  • RT @Yeap_IG: #IGMorningthoughts: - 89% of #SP500 companies outperformed earnings thus far, but only 0.2% gain in SP500 since start of earni…
  • Gold prices risk forming a "Double Top" pattern - #GOLD chart
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.14% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.17% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.87%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 74.32%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Keppel Corp is seeking to buy Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) for S$2.2 billion following the spin-off of its media assets, and plans to delist and privatize the company - BBG
  • S&P 500 Futures Lift Nikkei 225, Regulatory Risks Hit Chinese Stocks
British Pound Q3 Fundamental Forecast

British Pound Q3 Fundamental Forecast

Nick Cawley, Strategist

British Pound (GBP) Fundamental Outlook

  • The Bank of England expects the UK economy to grow by 7.25% this year.
  • UK inflation is likely to exceed 3% for a temporary period.

The UK economy looks to be in rude health with economic growth picking up sharply over the last quarter. According to the latest Bank of England (BoE) report, the recovery in economic activity is ‘most pronounced’ in the consumer-facing services sector after Covid restrictions were loosened in April, with output in some sectors ‘around pre-Covid levels’. The BoE expects the UK economy to grow by 7.25% this year, supported by the successful vaccination program and continued unwinding of lockdown measures, while the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) is more bullish and expects UK GDP to grow by 8.2% this year and 6.1% next year.

This bullish backdrop may come under pressure when the Government’s furlough scheme ends at the end of September. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said recently that the percentage of workers on furlough has dropped from 20% in late January this year to 7% in late May, although this still leaves 1.5 million workers on the scheme. The end of Q3 will be an important time for the government if they are to get unemployment back down to pre-covid levels.

Price pressures in the UK are also pushing higher with annual inflation hitting 2.1% in May, above the central bank’s target. The BoE expects inflation to exceed 3% for a temporary period, driven higher by energy and commodity prices. This outlook has prompted the market to bring forward thoughts of UK interest rate hikes, although if the recent developments in the US are anything to go by, the BoE will hold back on hiking rates until hard data makes it difficult to avoid.

UK data releases will now play an even more important role in any trading setup with the BoE becoming increasingly data-dependent. While most official data is backward-looking, the confirmation or not, of a trend in growth, employment or inflation, will be used as justification for any moves in monetary policy. The BoE will focus on inflation over the next few months and while they currently see the overshoot as temporary, they must be careful not to paint themselves into a monetary policy corner if price pressures become increasingly sticky.

Over the past two quarterly reports, we have been cautiously optimistic about Sterling and remain so, though we do recognise that the best performing quarters may be behind us. The British Pound may struggle to move meaningfully higher against the US dollar as expectations of tighter monetary policy in the US grow. Sterling may have a better chance of appreciation against other currencies, especially those for countries that are expected to keep monetary policy loose. Traders looking for bullish Sterling plays may be minded to look at GBP/JPY or EUR/GBP, while GBP/CHF may soon break out of its recent trading range.

“To read the full British Pound forecast including the technical outlook, download our new Q3 trading guide from the DailyFX Free Trading Guides”

Traders of all levels and abilities will find something to help them make more informed decisions in the new and improved DailyFX Trading Education Centre

What is your view on the British Pound – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.