News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.13%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 70.14%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/XXOjh5LmaB
  • Silver price action stalls between Moving Averages. Platinum prices currently confined by Fibonacci Support. Get your market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/Nbl8FDmfps https://t.co/VyuZzP8w2q
  • US Markets at the Close $NDX 12464.0 -1.73% $SPX 3768.49 -1.34% $DJI 30924.14 -1.11%
  • USD/JPY stronger during trade, now pushing towards 108 level $USDJPY https://t.co/GemouFGvHF
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.02% US 500: -0.03% Germany 30: -0.52% FTSE 100: -0.53% France 40: -0.71% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/jsQ36v1JJy
  • USD/CAD put in a test at the 1.2500 psychological level last week, but bulls following the falling wedge for topside breakouts may have to wait for a bit longer. Get your $USDCAD market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/81i2hiJT53 https://t.co/G0tuoC80CH
  • Gold continues its decline, now trading below $1,700 $XAUUSD https://t.co/PbAygJY9Yt
  • $USDJPY in full on bull mode longer-term, a really strong breakout from the falling wedge formation https://t.co/FDaE6Qzbfj https://t.co/23ubngiXnQ
  • USD/CHF sharply higher, extending recent gains https://t.co/sEukWUYhBU
  • Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Holds Support as USD Drives https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/03/04/Canadian-Dollar-Price-Forecast-USDCAD-USD-CAD-Holds-Support-as-USD-Drives.html $USDCAD https://t.co/pw7XkF7F7n
British Pound Forecast: Heavyweght Data to Dictate GBP Direction

British Pound Forecast: Heavyweght Data to Dictate GBP Direction

Justin McQueen, Analyst
British Pound Forecast: Heavyweght Data to Dictate GBP Direction

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

- Deluge of data to dictate near-term British Pounddirection via August rate hike odds.

- Brexit uncertainty likely to see increased risk premium amid parliamentary vote.

- Retail traders continue to buy the British Pound, which leads to a contrarian sell signal for the time being.

The recovery in GBP had been mired by the increased concerns surrounding Brexit over the past week with PM May conceding to threats made by Brexit Minister Davis to quit if an Irish backstop was left open-ended. As such, GBPUSD failed to make a firm break above 1.3400, reaching lows in the mid-1.33s. Looking ahead towards next week, the near-term outlook for GBP will not only be dictated by the latest developments on the Brexit front but also by the deluge of UK data, subsequently we have a neutral view for GBP.

The upcoming week will see a plethora of key economic releases from the UK. The latest employment report is scheduled for Tuesday where wage growth (ex-bonus) is expected to stand at 2.9% with weekly earnings remaining at 2.6%. A beat on the wage components will likely provide further ammo for the BoE hawks, advocating the case for a rate hike at the August QIR meeting and consequently bullish for the Pound. The hawkish tilt in the rhetoric from BoE members over the past week briefly kept the Pound firm with GBP/USD reaching a 2-week high at 1.3472.

On Tuesday, June 12, Theresa May’s Brexit plan will face its most severe test to date as she asks her divided party to overturn changes made the EU Withdraw Bill. The largest issue centre’s around issue of whether the UK should leave the Customs Union, which PM May wants, however some members of her party prefer to stay aligned with the EU’s border regime. Subsequently, defeat in upper parliament will keep the pressure on GBP amid an increase in risk premium.

On Wednesday, inflation figures will be reported, whereby the headline rate is seen rising 0.1ppt to 2.5%, while the core figure is expected to stay at 2.1%. There is potential for an upside surprise in the headline reading amid the surge in energy prices, as such this would likely see GBP push higher, given that inflation will move further away from the BoE’s remit. Reminder, BoE’s Ramsden stated last week that rate hikes will be warranted if inflation is persistently above 2% target.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES