News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/4DGXwA8vqs
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/mAMhWbV6Jy
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E9ZmJvqO0z
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/w009tJEQZn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/2AeO1AdD2M
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/INJz4NSugQ
Australian Dollar at Risk as Markets Eye Third Coronavirus Rate Cut

Australian Dollar at Risk as Markets Eye Third Coronavirus Rate Cut

David Cottle, Analyst
Australian Dollar Price Chart

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

  • Markets have moved in the past week to price in a rate cut on Tuesday
  • That would take the Official Cash Rate to zero
  • It’s hard to see the Aussie gaining if that happens

The Australian Dollar’s trading week will of course be dominated like that of all other assets by the coronavirus’ spread, but its domestic monetary response will once again be in focus too with an interest rate decision that could be historic due from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

According to index provider ASX futures markets now expect that the RBA will cut the Official Cash Rate to zero for the first time ever, from its current record low of 0.25%. The central bank has already made two quarter-percentage-point reductions in March, with an emergency cut added in response to the contagion.

With market still reeling from the news that new US unemployment benefit claimant numbers have surged by three million in each of the last two weeks, it’s certainly easy to believe that there’s probably more monetary work to do, not least in Australia.

Tuesday’s interest rate decision might be a little more finely balanced than the market thinks. The RBA has long wanted the government to take a much greater share of the stimulus burden on the fiscal side, keenly aware that still-looser monetary policy will have side effects in a country where consumers are already used to historically low interest rates and have borrowed accordingly.

However the coronavirus has probably put such relatively nuanced arguments on hold and, on balance it is probably more likely than not that rates in Australia will fall again this week.

It’s hard to see the Australian Dollar recovering should this be the case, especially if the market becomes convinced as it surely will that matters need not necessarily rest with zero interest rates and that some Quantitative Easing could follow.

There remains some hope that the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia might end, perhaps quite soon. That might well give the entire commodity complex a boost, well beyond the energy market, maybe lifting the commodity-linked Australian Dollar too. But that’s a left-field possibility. On the basis of what we can know, it has to be another bearish call this week.

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by David Cottle
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
Get My Guide
AUDUSD Chart Daily

Australian Dollar Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES