We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @RedboxWire: S. KOREA SEEKS TO SOON UNVEIL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC MEASURES AGAINST CORONAVIRUS - YONHAP
  • Event risks for tomorrow includes $GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY), $CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY), and USD FOMC Meeting Minutes https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/4Im2KS7AWP
  • 🇺🇸 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (DEC), Actual: $85.6b Expected: N/A Previous: $27.1b https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-18
  • US Equities Update (Tuesday Close): $DJI -0.56% $SPX -0.30% $NDX +0.06% $RTY -0.26% $VIX +7.89%
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.28% Germany 30: 0.27% US 500: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/cG81G7JpuV
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (DEC) due at 21:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: $22.9b https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-18
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.657% 3-Year: -0.670% 5-Year: -0.621% 7-Year: -0.572% 10-Year: -0.411% 30-Year: 0.107%
  • #EURCHF has reached a five-year low: https://t.co/tQwrajCeiL
  • Don't forget to check out my weekly US Dollar forecast ahead of the FOMC minutes: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2020/02/15/US-Dollar-Outlook-Bullish-on-FOMC-Minutes-Coronavirus-Iran.html?QPID=30472&CHID=9 Other topics include: - #Coronavirus 🦠 - #IranElections2020 🇮🇷 - US PMI data 📊
  • $GBPUSD is at risk of easing further near term after dipping below 1.30 as concerns about the #coronavirus outbreak rise. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/NBZjRXn7rM https://t.co/Tdk5aJPfhb
Australian Dollar Battered Amid Market Turmoil Faces RBA and GDP

Australian Dollar Battered Amid Market Turmoil Faces RBA and GDP

2019-08-30 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
AUDUSD Weekly 2 Hour Chart

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is not expected to pull the interest rate trigger yet
  • Growth looks certain to be anemic, the question is to what extent
  • Trade, recession worries may continue to drive

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar faces a busy week for domestic economic news but may require significant deviations from market forecasts if they’re to tear the currency out of overall risk appetite’s grip.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will give its September monetary policy verdict on Tuesday. Markets expect that the record-low 1% Official Cash Rate will be staying put. That probability is around 90%, according to index provider ASX. Futures markets still reckon we’ll see two more quarter-point reductions over the next six months, but they don’t price in the first of them until November.

Assuming the RBA keeps its hands of the monetary levers this week, what it may say in any statement will be important. In recent months these tended to emphasize both the long-term nature of historically low interest rates and the benefits of a weaker Australian Dollar in the RBA’ long fight against weak inflation. More of the same is unlikely to offer the currency much respite.

GDP Prospects Look Mixed at Best

Wednesday will bring a first look at official second-quarter Gross Domestic Product data. Here things are very much in the balance. Business investment has already been shown to have sagged in that period but spending on plant, equipment and machinery remains robust in corporate Australia. There has been a marked slowdown in overall construction activity, however, which is bound to make its presence felt in the numbers.

The markets is looking for quarterly expansion of between 0.2% and 0.5%, after the first quarter’s insipid 0.4% rise. Assuming no surprises an outcome within that range may pass the market by. After all the second quarter is long behind us and investors may see far more pressing current risks in the form of global trade and recession fears.

As a new week begins there seems to be some relative optimism that China and the US will keep talking on trade. However, this optimism is fickle, utterly subject to news flow. Should it endure the Australian Dollar can expect support but there’s little reason to suppose that a meaningful recovery is coming for this most growth-sensitive currency.

It’s a cautious neutral call this week.

AUDUSD Daily Price Chart

Australian Dollar Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.