News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Republican Senator Mitt Romney has said of the upcoming bi-partisan stimulus proposal ($908 bln) it is not a "stimulus bill" but rather "a relief measure"
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.90% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.80% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.62% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.32% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.20% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ykfoON61sD
  • On being asked about the liquidity programs the Treasury called back from the Fed recently, Secretary Mnuchin said the move was not political
  • Fed Chairman Powell says in his testimony that the US economy performed "better than expected" amid the recovery from the coronavirus 'lock down'
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 1.39% Wall Street: 1.23% US 500: 1.21% France 40: 0.46% Germany 30: 0.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/rXGZX2OGcQ
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 Bundesbank Mauderer Speech due at 16:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-01
  • 🇲🇽 Markit Manufacturing PMI (NOV) Actual: 43.70 Previous: 43.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-01
  • EUR/USD Rejects 1.20 Again: With month-end noise out of the way, markets can now focus on the longer-term themes. Get your $EURUSD market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/KUlnBfnvfN https://t.co/SEOFiV1O12
  • $USD bounce from yday now almost entirely priced-out. Two-year-low lurks just below https://t.co/RgWHkaDihi https://t.co/RxQCFXtQVn
  • $EURUSD has jumped above 1.20000 during the Powell testimony
Australian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom

Australian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom

2015-10-31 00:34:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
Australian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data LoomAustralian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Aussie Dollar Volatility Risk Skewed to the Upside on RBA Rate Decision
  • US Jobs Data May Sink Aussie if Upbeat Reading Boosts Fed Liftoff Bets
  • Find Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar edged lower for a third consecutive week against its US counterpart as a disappointing third-quarter CPI reading revived interest rate cut speculation while a hawkish FOMC statement amplified policy divergence headwinds by reviving talk of Fed tightening in December. Both themes will be on full display in the week ahead as the RBA issues its rate decision and top-tier US economic data comes across the wires.

OIS pricing implies traders see a 48 percent probability of a 25 basis point RBA interest rate cut. This means that volatility is likely regardless of what the central bank decides to do since a sizable contingent of investors will end up on the wrong side and be forced to readjust portfolios.

Options markets point to a negative positioning skew however, with traders willing to pay a premium for the right to sell the Aussie against all of its major counterparts compared with a right to buy it. On balance, that hints that upside follow-through may be greater on the upside in the event of a hawkish result versus the alternative.

On the external front, a busy week of US economic activity data will set the stage for October’s Employment figures. Consensus forecasts call for a 180,000 increase in non-farm payrolls to mark the highest increase in hiring in three months.

US news-flow has cautiously improved relative to expectations in the past month, recent disappointments notwithstanding. That cautiously hints at an upside surprise may be in the cards. With that said, realized payrolls numbers have trailed survey estimates by an average of 31.5k since the beginning of the year, warning against exuberant optimism.

An upbeat result is likely to increase the likelihood of an FOMC interest rate hike at next month’s policy meeting in the minds of investors. That is likely to push the US Dollar broadly higher, including against the Aussie. Losses may be compounded if the prospect of US tightening against a backdrop of slowing global performance weighs on risk appetite, amplifying selling pressure on the sentiment-linked currency. Needless to say, a soft print will probably yield the opposite dynamics.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES