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US Dollar, Market Sentiment at the Mercy of the Federal Reserve

US Dollar, Market Sentiment at the Mercy of the Federal Reserve

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar and Market-Wide Sentiment at the Mercy of the Federal Reserve
  • Australian Dollar Sinks as Soft CPI Data Fuels RBA Rate Cut Speculation
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours puts the monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve firmly in focus. A rate hike looks overwhelmingly unlikely. Fed funds futures suggest traders expect “liftoff” no sooner than March 2016. That means tightening now would almost certainly send markets into a tailspin. Avoiding just such an outcome is almost certainly why the Fed opted against a hike in September. Officials are surely no keener to spook investors at this point.

With that said, most Fed policymakers have continued to express a preference for raising rates in 2015. If that is truly on the agenda, the statement issued by the rate-setting FOMCcommittee following the meeting will have to set the rhetorical foundation for a December move.

Hawkish commentary will clash with market expectations and force a readjustment, boosting the US Dollar. It is also likely to weigh on risk appetite, punishing the so-called “commodity currencies”.A dovish lean is likely to yield the opposite result, though follow-on momentum may be capped considering this would amount to convergence with an already priced-in outlook.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade after third-quarter CPI data fell short of economists’ expectations. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate registered at 1.5 percent, unchanged from the second quarter but lower than consensus forecasts calling for a print at 1.7 percent.

Traders interpreted the outcome as bolstering the likelihood of RBA easing head, with the currency sinking alongside a drop in front-end Australian bond yields. OIS rates suggest the markets now see a 91 percent probability of a 25bps reduction in the cash rate at November’s policy meeting.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (SEP)

-0.2%

0.4%

0.8%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP)

0.7%

1.1%

0.0%

23:50

JPY

Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales (SEP)

1.7%

1.1%

1.8%

00:30

AUD

CPI (QoQ) (3Q)

0.5%

0.7%

0.7%

00:30

AUD

CPI (YoY) (3Q)

1.5%

1.7%

1.5%

00:30

AUD

CPI Trimmed Mean (QoQ) (3Q)

0.3%

0.5%

0.6%

00:30

AUD

CPI Trimmed Mean (YoY) (3Q)

2.1%

2.4%

2.2%

00:30

AUD

CPI Weighted Median (QoQ) (3Q)

0.3%

0.5%

0.5%

00:30

AUD

CPI Weighted Median (YoY) (3Q)

2.2%

2.5%

2.4%

01:45

CNH

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (OCT)

109.7

-

118.2

05:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (OCT)

49.2

49.0

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (SEP)

-0.2%

-1.5%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

-3.5%

-3.1%

Low

07:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV)

9.4

9.6

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0955

1.1004

1.1028

1.1053

1.1077

1.1102

1.1151

GBPUSD

1.5162

1.5238

1.5269

1.5314

1.5345

1.5390

1.5466

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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