News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/bZEFtoQJgE https://t.co/RT9Z4K8xCy
  • A forex trader is strategic, disciplined and always switched on to the markets. Learn how to build an FX mindset here: https://t.co/tB3aAE9BIq https://t.co/xXJAnSMoaF
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrLeetw https://t.co/1w7E3aiWV1
  • A “PIP” – which stands for Point in Percentage - is the unit of measure used by forex traders to define the smallest change in value between two currencies. Learn how to understand pips in forex here: https://t.co/AfAhmI7kAV https://t.co/JiZPRZzwgo
  • RT @IGSquawk: Crypto update: #Bitcoin 56398.30 -7.34% #Ether 2213.91 -7.42% #BitcoinCash 925.49 -12.24% #EOS 6.8039 -15.98% #Stellar 0.5276…
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkzWwW https://t.co/rJUm1W9wrc
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZjVIG https://t.co/oZPoyPH2iw
  • Using margin in forex trading is a new concept for many traders, and one that is often misunderstood. Margin is the minimum amount of money required to place a leveraged trade and can be a useful risk management tool. Learn about margin trading here: https://t.co/qZCE5asCzM https://t.co/yN1I9FrfIS
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/5l3O9aHQbL https://t.co/DFEfCIl7zF
  • Thin liquidity can concentrate volatility and nowhere is that more evident than with Dogecoin. $DOGEUSD was down as much as 38% today. Watch for heightened bouts of volatility amid quiet risk trends in the week ahead: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/04/17/Dollar-Outlook-Ties-Into-Key-Data-Rate-Forecasts-and-Even-Dogecoins-Rally-.html https://t.co/JO7O7zUKe9
US Dollar Catches Support After Another Core CPI Print at 2.4%

US Dollar Catches Support After Another Core CPI Print at 2.4%

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

US Dollar Talking Points:

This morning brought the release of CPI numbers out of the United States for the month of September and similar to what’s been showing of recent, Core CPI, stripping out food and energy remained strong while headline CPI continued below the 2% marker.

On the strength side of the equation, Core CPI followed up last month’s surprising print at 2.4% with another 2.4% read; which came in right at the expectation. This marks now the 19th consecutive month with Core CPI printing above the 2% threshold and this also highlights how inflation may remain on an upward trajectory considering the two very recent cuts from the FOMC. Core CPI began to tilt-higher after bottoming out in May at 2%, and continued to increase through June and July, before the Fed had started to cut rates again.

This may be another reason for the Fed to hold rates at the October rate decision, potentially dampening hopes for another cut at the FOMC meeting later this month. While growth pressures remain fairly visible, the argument can be made that not enough time has yet transpired for those two recent rate cuts to transmit through economic data.

US Core CPI Since April, 2018

us core cpi since april 2018

Chart prepared by James Stanley

On the other side of the coin, headline CPI disappointed slightly, printing at the same 1.7% as last month versus an expectation of 1.8%. This indicator has been fairly stable since last year’s fall from just under 3% to below 2.

US Headline CPI Since April, 2018

us cpi since april 2018

Chart prepared by James Stanley

US Dollar Finds Support After Bearish Push

Ahead of this morning’s data the US Dollar was selling-off, helped in-part by some less dovish remarks in the ECB meeting minutes around the Euro. This helped EUR/USD to break-above that confluent zone of resistance around the 1.1000 handle that had helped to hold the highs over the past week and, correspondingly, the US Dollar broke-down to fresh near-term lows, finding bids just above last week’s swing-low.

The big question around EUR/USD at the moment is whether bulls can maintain this morning’s breakout, and the CPI release may help to confirm or deny this thesis. EUR/USD price action has broken out to fresh two-week-highs and that prior area of resistance at 1.1000 can be used for higher-low support scenarios. Should USD-strength continue to price-in on the back of this morning’s CPI report, a hold of that support at prior resistance can open the door for bullish trend strategies, looking for buyers to continue pushing-higher on the charts.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

Can USD Bulls Take-Over?

Taking a step back to look at the big picture, the primary question right now is whether we’re in a position where US Dollar bulls can make more of a mark. The US currency has remained bid through 2019 trade, including Q3 when the FOMC began cutting rates again. But, the manner in which the bank has so far moderated policy has left traders looking for signs or clues or innuendo of what’s to come next, as the FOMC has framed both rate cuts thus far as ‘insurance rate cuts.’

That, combined with the intense focus on the matter of both USD price action and FOMC monetary policy from President Trump, and a bearish reversal formation has built in the Greenback this year. Buyers are shy or trepidatious at-or-around highs while being more aggressive around lows. This has produced a rising wedge formation which will often be approached with the aim of a bearish turn, looking for that lack of enthusiasm from bulls around resistance or fresh highs to, eventually, push through for a break of support.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

us dollar daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

On a shorter-term basis, the big question is whether this morning’s CPI data can bring a lasting response in the Greenback. Prices are currently bouncing from last week’s lows, around the 98.65 level on DXY and attention will likely turn towards tomorrow’s release of Consumer Sentiment Data out of the University of Michigan for that next clue on forward-looking performance of the US economy.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

us dollar four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES