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JPY Quietly Positioning Itself for Strong Start to 2016

JPY Quietly Positioning Itself for Strong Start to 2016

2015-12-21 12:55:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY key reversal on Friday looms ominously.

- AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY offer solid setups as well.

- See the December forex seasonality report.

The Japanese Yen is heading into the new year on stronger footing than most realize. From four vantage points the tide seems to be turning for the lowly funding currency:

- Politically, Japanese policymakers probably don't want a stronger USD/JPY so as to deter US policymakers from backing out of the TPP, which greatly benefits Japanese automakers.

- Economically, Japan just extended its current account surplus streak to 15 consecutive months through September, and the surplus looks set to expand next year.

- Monetarily, the BOJ just demonstrated that it's done with additional easing measures as its recent move was nothing more than a "technical adjustment."

- Fiscally, the GPIF is finalizing its foreign asset allocation.

These aren't the cumulative conditions that have led to the capital outflows driving a weaker Japanese Yen the past few years. Now, as you can see in the video above, technical conditions in various JPY-crosses (AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and USD/JPY) suggest that, once the bell rings for 2016, the Yen could have quietly positioned itself for a strong start to the year.

Read more: December Forex Seasonality Foresees Mixed US Dollar, S&P 500 Rally

Lastly, as we approach the holidays and thus less liquid markets through the end of the year, it's worth reviewing principles that help protect your capital. We call these principles the "Traits of Successful Traders."

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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