Mexican Peso Technical Price Outlook: USD/MXN Near-term Trade Levels
- Mexican Peso updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
- USD/MXN reverses off downtrend resistance – breaks to multi-month lows
- Key support 20.0752 – Risk for further losses while below monthly open
The US Dollar is down more than 1.9% against the Mexican Peso this week despite a weekly range of more than 6.5%. The Presidential Election has fueled volatility across the USD Majors with USD/MXN breaking to multi-week highs yesterday before reversing sharply to break to multi-month lows. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/MXN technical price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Peso setup and more.
Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN Daily
![Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN Daily - US Dollar vs Mexican Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast](https://a.c-dn.net/b/2s4So8/Dollar-Mexican-Peso-Outlook-USD-MXN-Election-Reversal-to-Multi-Month-Low-USDMXN-Technical-Forecast-MBTS11_body_MexicanPesoPriceChart-USDMXNDaily-DollarvsMexicanPesoTradeOutlook-TechnicalForec.jpg)
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/MXN on Tradingview
Technical Outlook: In my last Mexican Peso Price Outlook we noted that USD/MXN had, “broken below a key pivot zone but the follow-though looks a bit tired here.” The region in focus was the Fibonacci confluence at 21.2316/2942 – price straddled this zone for nearly a month with the post-election rally failing yesterday at longer-term downtrend resistance. The subsequent reversal has broken below the September / October lows and risks further losses heading deeper into November trade- watch the close today for guidance.
Initial daily support rests with the sliding parallel just lower near ~20.5000 – look for inflection there with a break lower keeping the focus on the 2019 swing high at 20.2561 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 20.0752. Initial resistance now back at 20.8377 with bearish invalidation lowered to the technical confluence / monthly open at 21.2316/2942.
Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN 120min
![Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN 120min - US Dollar vs Mexican Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast](https://a.c-dn.net/b/3XGeai/Dollar-Mexican-Peso-Outlook-USD-MXN-Election-Reversal-to-Multi-Month-Low-USDMXN-Technical-Forecast-MBTS11_body_MexicanPesoPriceChart-USDMXN120min-DollarvsMexicanPesoTradeOutlook-TechnicalFore.jpg)
Notes: A closer look at Peso price action shows USD/MXN trading within the confines of a near-term descending pitchfork formation extending off the June / September highs with the election rally failing just pips ahead of the upper parallel / 61.8% retracement at 21.9920. The subsequent reversal marks a break of the weekly opening-range and keeps the focus lower while below 21.2942.
![](https://a.c-dn.net/b/0YPMDo/logo-stripe.png)
![USD Forecast](https://a.c-dn.net/b/2o6KQV/500x707Forecast-USD.png)
![USD Forecast](https://a.c-dn.net/b/2o6KQV/500x707Forecast-USD.png)
Bottom line: A weekly opening-range reversal keeps the risk lower in USD/MXN in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, the decline is approaching near-term downtrend support- look for topside exhaustion ahead of the weekly / monthly open on recoveries IF price is indeed heading lower. Ultimately a breach above this week’s high would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered this week. Keep in mind we still have the FOMC interest rate decision and US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) on tap into the close of the week- stay nimble.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
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Key US / Mexico Data Releases
![Key US / Mexico Data Releases - USD/MXN Economic Calendar - Dollar / Peso Event Risk](https://a.c-dn.net/b/3XGbk8/Dollar-Mexican-Peso-Outlook-USD-MXN-Election-Reversal-to-Multi-Month-Low-USDMXN-Technical-Forecast-MBTS11_body_USMexicoKeyDataReleases-USDMXNEconomicCalendar-PesoOutlook-WeeklyEventRisk11-5-2.jpg)
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex