We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
Swiss Franc Price Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Grinds into Trend Resistance

Swiss Franc Price Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Grinds into Trend Resistance

2019-09-12 18:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

The Swiss Franc has fallen more than 2.7% against the US Dollar from the mid-August / yearly extremes with USD/CHF stretching into key resistance this week. The advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold with the weekly opening-range now in focus. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CHF charts. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

Swiss Franc Price Chart - USD/CHF Daily - US Dollar vs Swiss Franc Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my most recent Swiss Franc Trade Outlook, we noted that USD/CHF was approaching a major, “resistance zone at 9931/48 – a region defined by the 100% ext of the August advance and the 50% retracement of the yearly range.” Out bottom line cited that we were,looking for a pivot here with the broader advance at risk while below 9951.” Price registered a high this week at 9946 before turning lower with Swissy poised to mark an outside-day reversal off fresh monthly highs today.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 120min

Swiss Franc Price Chart - USD/CHF 120min - US Dollar vs Swiss Franc Trade Outlook- Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on Tradingview

Notes: A closer look at Swissy price action sees USD/CHF trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the August lows with the recent advance holding below the 75% parallel for the last two weeks. Note that this slope converges on the 9948/52 region over the next few days and further highlights the technical significance of this threshold.

Weekly open support rests at 9875 backed closely by the highlighted trendline confluence. A break back below the lower parallel / yearly open at 9839 would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered this week. A topside breach of the weekly opening-range highs / 9952 would mark resumption of the broader uptrend with such a scenario targeting pitchfork resistance (currently ~9990s) and the 61.8% retracement at 1.0016.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: USD/CHF is testing uptrend resistance here with the recent price advance vulnerable while below 9948/52. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Look side-ways to lower with a break of the weekly range lows to challenge the lower parallels. Ultimately, a larger decline would offer more favorable long-entries closer to trend support.

Swiss Franc Trader Sentiment – USD/CHF Price Chart

Swiss Franc Trader Sentiment - USD/CHF Price Chart - US Dollar vs Swiss Franc Trade Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CHF - the ratio stands at -1.12 (47.1% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 1.6% lower than yesterday and 20.5% lower from last week
  • Short positions are0.7% lower than yesterday and 12.0% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CHF prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CHF-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Swissy retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Key US / Swiss Data Releases

US / Swiss Data Releases - USD/CHF Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.