We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇺🇸 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (FEB), Actual: 11.5% Expected: 6.0% Previous: 6.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-03-30
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.82%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 72.26%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/tvJ75jahL3
  • NY Fed Purchases $6 B in Treasury Coupons
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.33% Silver: -2.85% Oil - US Crude: -4.78% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/GwAV15kNjx
  • $USDCAD up over 1.50% off of weekly lows as S&P forecasts 2% GDP contraction in Canada in 2020 https://t.co/WPnG7d56ev
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (FEB) due at 14:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 6.0% Previous: 6.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-03-30
  • $GBPUSD traded as high as 1.2466 in early turnover before giving back over 100 pips as sellers took early control of the pair. Get your GBP/USD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/oQwEGX3foF https://t.co/SjiFiR0sZT
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.85% Germany 30: 0.65% Wall Street: 0.48% France 40: -0.29% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/ZkdGo3GLje
  • Mnuchin: - Economy was in a good place before #coronavirus - US stocks still attractive for long-term investors
  • Mnuchin: - Trump administration has not yet started on a fourth virus aid bill - Will ask congress for more help if need be - 'Absolutely' sees stocks surging back up
Aussie Price Outlook: AUD/USD Collapse Targeting 70 Support

Aussie Price Outlook: AUD/USD Collapse Targeting 70 Support

2019-04-24 17:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

The Australian Dollar is down more than 2.4% against the US Dollar from the monthly highs with Aussie breaking below yearly open support today. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

Aussie Price Chart - Aussie Daily - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar

Technical Outlook: In my latest AUD/USD Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Aussie was, “trading within a critical range between 7020-7184 – and we’re looking for the breakout to offer guidance on our medium-term outlook. From a trading standpoint, the immediate risk is lower within this range but look for a reaction on a drop towards yearly open support.” Price is approaching the lower bounds of this key range today after breaking below pitchfork support / the April opening-range lows – note that daily RSI failed to surpass the 60-threshold and further highlights the broader bearish momentum profile.

Daily support rests with the yearly low-day close at 7005- a break / close below this level would be needed to keep the short-bias viable targeting the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 6955. Monthly open resistance steady at 7122 with broader bearish invalidation at the 200-day moving average / 61.8% retracement at 7184/85.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

AUD/USD 240min Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie 240minute - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Aussie trading within the confine pf a descending pitchfork formation extending off the March / April highs with price approaching confluence support just lower at 7005 – look for a reaction there IF reached. Initial resistance stands at the highlighted trendline confluence just below 7100 backed by the monthly open at 7122 – both levels of interest for possible exhaustion / short-entries.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: Aussie has broken significant support and keeps the focus lower in price – that said, the decline is now approaching initial areas of support that could offer a near-term reprieve. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a test of the 70-handle with weakness beyond this zone needed to keep the bears in control. Be on the lookout for possible exhaustion there IF price fails to close below.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment

Aussie Trader Sentiment - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Positioning - AUD/USD Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD- the ratio stands at +2.61 (72.3% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are23.2% higher than yesterday and 66.4% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 31.1% lower than yesterday and 52.9% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Aussie prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Relevant Australia / US Economic Data Releases

Australia / US Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex


DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.