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Aussie Price Outlook: AUD/USD Collapse Targeting 70 Support

Aussie Price Outlook: AUD/USD Collapse Targeting 70 Support

Michael Boutros, Strategist

The Australian Dollar is down more than 2.4% against the US Dollar from the monthly highs with Aussie breaking below yearly open support today. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

Aussie Price Chart - Aussie Daily - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar

Technical Outlook: In my latest AUD/USD Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Aussie was, “trading within a critical range between 7020-7184 – and we’re looking for the breakout to offer guidance on our medium-term outlook. From a trading standpoint, the immediate risk is lower within this range but look for a reaction on a drop towards yearly open support.” Price is approaching the lower bounds of this key range today after breaking below pitchfork support / the April opening-range lows – note that daily RSI failed to surpass the 60-threshold and further highlights the broader bearish momentum profile.

Daily support rests with the yearly low-day close at 7005- a break / close below this level would be needed to keep the short-bias viable targeting the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 6955. Monthly open resistance steady at 7122 with broader bearish invalidation at the 200-day moving average / 61.8% retracement at 7184/85.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

AUD/USD 240min Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie 240minute - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Aussie trading within the confine pf a descending pitchfork formation extending off the March / April highs with price approaching confluence support just lower at 7005 – look for a reaction there IF reached. Initial resistance stands at the highlighted trendline confluence just below 7100 backed by the monthly open at 7122 – both levels of interest for possible exhaustion / short-entries.

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Bottom line: Aussie has broken significant support and keeps the focus lower in price – that said, the decline is now approaching initial areas of support that could offer a near-term reprieve. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a test of the 70-handle with weakness beyond this zone needed to keep the bears in control. Be on the lookout for possible exhaustion there IF price fails to close below.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment

Aussie Trader Sentiment - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Positioning - AUD/USD Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD- the ratio stands at +2.61 (72.3% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are23.2% higher than yesterday and 66.4% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 31.1% lower than yesterday and 52.9% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Aussie prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Relevant Australia / US Economic Data Releases

Australia / US Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.