We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.672% 3-Year: -0.705% 5-Year: -0.623% 7-Year: -0.574% 10-Year: -0.395% 30-Year: 0.108%
  • At present, the Dow is sporting the smallest three-day ATR (average daily range) since July 30. Has good historical comparison to previous consolidation before reversal periods https://t.co/dSUOw5VVmB
  • RT @Nadex: Join @DailyFX, @IG_US, and us for an exclusive evening of in-depth analysis with the legendary technical investor John Bollinger…
  • The trio of safe-haven currencies continue to lead the way among the $EUR-crosses month-to-date: EUR/JPY is up by 2.48%; EUR/USD has added 1.98%; and EUR/CHF has gained 1.24%. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/3AHlQT4zwY https://t.co/yzDD8ujej9
  • Brexit extensions length still being talked about between EU27 envoys with France preferring a shorter timetable compared to most according to EU official $EUR $GBP
  • Gold, USD, USD/JPY Ahead of FOMC: Will the Fed Deliver Another Cut?https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/drivers_of_price_action/2019/10/23/gold-usd-usd-jpy-ahead-of-fomc-will-the-fed-deliver-another-rate-cut-js53-gold-price.html https://t.co/T1KJdgYvpC
  • EU27 Government Envoys backed Brexit extension unanimously according to EU Diplomat -BBG
  • EU27 ambassadors will meet this Friday to discuss Brexit extension request, 3 month delay most likely scenario according to EU Diplomats $GBP $EUR
  • US 5-Year Notes Draw 1.570% Primary Dealers Awarded: 22.8% Direct Bidders Awarded: 11.5% Indirect Bidders Awarded: 65.7% B/C Ratio: 2.41
  • French President Macron demands November 15 Brexit deadline - Telegraph
Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD and AUD/USD

Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD and AUD/USD

2019-04-17 19:21:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

USD/CAD 240min Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar 240minute

In my most recent USD/CAD Price Outlook we noted that, “The Canadian Dollar largely remains within the confines of a broader consolidation pattern just below key resistance,” with our broader focus on a break of the, “1.3298-1.3437 range for guidance.” Price challenged the lower bounds of this zone today with a recovery taking Loonie back into monthly open resistance at 1.3345 – the weekly OR is set.

Today’s defense of support keeps the focus on a break of the broader consolidation pattern with the monthly opening-range still intact heading into US / Canada retail sales data tomorrow. A topside breach targets 1.3467 backed by the 78.6% retracement at 1.3537. A break lower exposes 1.3234/48- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Review my latest USD/CAD Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term technical trade levels.

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Positioning - Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.33 (42.9% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Traders have remained net-short since April 10th; price is unchanged since then
  • Long positions are 8.4% higher than yesterday and 28.2% lower from last week
  • Short positions are22.3% lower than yesterday and 0.3% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

AUD/USD 240min Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar 240minute

In our last Aussie Price Outlook, we noted that AUD/USD was, “trading into a near-term technical resistance confluence and while the immediate advance is vulnerable heading into the close of the week, a break of the monthly opening range does keep the broader focus higher in price while above the monthly open.” A brief stint above the 200-day moving average at ~7194 failed today with Aussie slipping back below the weekly open ahead of Australian employment data later tonight.

A break below April channel support would risk a larger set-back in Aussie with such a scenario targeting the monthly open at 7122 backed by the 61.8% retracement at 7111 and the highlighted confluence zone around ~7086- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Resistance stands at 7216/18 with a breach / close above 7233 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price targeting 7270/75. Review my latest AUD/USD Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term technical trade levels.

Find yourself getting trigger shy or missing opportunities? Learn how to build Confidence in Your Trading

New to Forex? Get started with our Beginners Trading Guide!

-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.