We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • Lessons from Bretton Woods are forgotten, the US-China #tradewar represents a true existential threat to the post-World War II international trade order, and in turn, the globalized economy that has grown out of the ashes of history. More from @CVecchioFX :https://t.co/paaBxX6Xt0 https://t.co/Lk229DNh6n
  • Catch up with @JStanleyFX as he walks through some FX price action setups post-FOMC. Get your recap here: https://t.co/MD2PB33t0L
  • What is the @ecb (European Central Bank)? What are the key mandates of the bank and how can it affect the #forex market? Find out: https://t.co/romV4hPQJv https://t.co/4nlCaUNhpD
  • Your psychology has a significant impact on the decisions you make, particularly if you are new to trading. How can you avoid your emotions from turning you into a #FOMO trader? Find out: https://t.co/FC7CHpk9vA #FOMOintrading https://t.co/WSDr3JkpAG
  • $AUDUSD: Short-term support could lead-in to a quick bounce up to resistance as taken from another prior support level, plotted around the .6830 level on the chart. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/tUoe1Roo5t https://t.co/omaDxGNhZU
  • Central bank independence has several advantages. Find out what they are in detail with @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/wVFXbbTxf1 https://t.co/cQQmuH8biQ
  • The US Dollar remains in consolidation mode against the Philippine Peso and Indian Rupee. Will the Singapore Dollar weaken as $USDSGD rising support holds ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/HZ8Loqj3Ey https://t.co/6PCFkdj3ka
  • Follow @DailyFXedu for your regular #webinar updates with @DailyFX analysts and catch up on the webinars you missed. https://t.co/Da10QUg9r1
  • Greed has proven to be a hindrance more than assistance for traders. How does greed lead to #FOMOintrading? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/aT8TZjlFqP https://t.co/Le8Qx6OOwV
  • $GBPUSD at the moment break-even straddles = 152pips meaning that for option traders to realize gains, the spot price must see a move greater than 152pips. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/odj2lLRrGf https://t.co/RXCBwHGluG
Kiwi Price Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Recovery could be Short-Lived

Kiwi Price Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Recovery could be Short-Lived

2019-04-15 18:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

The New Zealand Dollar is down 0.65% against the US Dollar since the start of the month with Kiwi rebounding off key confluence support late-last week. While the near-term picture allows for further gains, the broader risk remains weighted to the downside after breaking multi-year slope support earlier in the month. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

NZD/USD Daily Price Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar Daily

Technical Outlook: In my latest NZD/USD Price Outlook we noted that Kiwi had, “turned from multi-month consolidation resistance and keeps the focus on a reaction just lower near the 2018 trendline. From a trading standpoint, we’ll favor fading weakness while below 6889 - look to reduce short-exposure / possible price exhaustion on a move lower. Ultimately a break below yearly open support at 6705would be needed to validate a larger turn in price.” NZD/USD registered a low at 6713 last week before rebounding with price holding just below former trendline support (now resistance) extending off the 2018 lows.

Note that daily momentum has continued to defend the 40-threshold as support – a break below this level alongside a break below yearly open support at 6705 would be needed to validate the reversal targeting 6633. Initial resistance stands with the 100-day moving average at ~6807 with a breach / close above the monthly open / 50% retracement at 6820/26 needed to alleviate further downside pressure.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

NZD/USD 120min Price Chart

Kiwi Price Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Recovery could be Short-Lived

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Kiwi rebounding off Fibonacci support at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range / February at 6720/22 with the pair nearly completing an outside-day reversal off the lows on Friday. Initial resistance stands at 6781 backed by 6800/07 and 6820/26 – a close above this threshold would be needed to keep the long-bias viable. Support and near-term bullish invalidation rests with the 200DMA / lower parallel at 6732- a break below this zone would have us once again targeting the yearly open.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: Kiwi has rebounded confluence support and we’re looking for exhaustion on this recovery just higher IF price is indeed heading lower. From a trading standpoint, the immediate threat may be higher, but we’ll favor fading strength towards 6800 with a break below 6722 needed to fuel the next leg lower. Keep in mind we get the release of New Zealand inflation data tomorrow night. Review my latest Kiwi Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term technical picture.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

Kiwi - New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar Trader Sentiment - NZDUSD Positio
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD- the ratio stands at +2.06 (67.3% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since April 2nd; price has moved 0.4% lower since then
  • Long positions are1.9% higher than yesterday and 11.0% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 20.8% higher than yesterday and 7.7% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current NZD/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in NZD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant New Zealand / US Economic Data Releases

New Zealand / US Economic Data Releases

Economi Calendar- latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.