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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Fails at Monthly Range Highs

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Fails at Monthly Range Highs

Michael Boutros, Strategist

The Canadian Dollar is attempting to resume its advance against the US Dollar as the top performer this year with price now testing a near-term support pivot that if broken, could exposes further losses for the greenback. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts.

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USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Daily

Technical Outlook: In my last USD/CAD TechnicalOutlook we noted that the price was rebounding from daily trend support with a hold below resistance at 1.32 needed to keep the focus lower. An early month recovery registered a high at 1.3340 before puling back with the decline now once again approaching the 1.32-handle. Note that the February opening-range remains intact with Loonie attempting to close below the 100-day moving average today around ~1.3230.

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USD/CAD 120min Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar 120min

Notes: A closer look at price action shows USD/CAD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the monthly highs with the median-line further highlighting near-term support at the 50% retracement at 1.3204. A break below would exposes subsequent support objectives at the 61.8% retracement / 100% extension at 1.3166/72 backed closely by the 200-day moving average at ~1.3142 and the monthly open at 1.3123 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Initial resistance stands at the weekly open at 1.3250 with a near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to 1.3282.

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Bottom line: Looking for a daily close below the 100-day moving average with the immediate focus on a reaction down at the 1.32-handle. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce short-exposure and lower protective stops – look for failure ahead of the upper parallel / 1.3282 on a rebound IF price is indeed heading lower. Review my latest USD/CAD Weekly Technical Outlook for a longer-term look at the weekly price charts.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

USD/CAD Trader Positioning
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.05 (48.8% of traders are long) – neutralreading
  • Traders have remained net-short since February 6th; price has moved 0.7% higher since then
  • Long positions are14.1% higher than yesterday and 49.3% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 2.7% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/CAD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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