We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • My weekend trading video: 'S&P 500 Rises on Trump China Presser, #NFPs and Rate Decisions Ahead' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/05/30/SP-500-Rises-on-Trump-China-Presser-NFPs-and-Rate-Decisions-Ahead.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/ZvoGoibzj1
  • Hopes are high for deeper European economic integration as the continent battles back from the coronavirus slowdowns – but will it hold? What impact can this have on #Euro? Find out from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/b9ZWRd4cTr https://t.co/gngm5tKqjz
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/iL7xlHLBiF
  • #Gold has a short-term bullish set-up that may play nicely with USD weakening. The longer and shorter-term path of least resistance remains higher. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/B4MVrg8f6i
  • The AUD may suffer as relations between Australia and China deteriorate amid dwindling growth prospects. Euro traders will be closely watching progress in talks about a €500b recovery fund proposal. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/Fo1wlWyz8r
  • The US Dollar is attempting to find direction against the Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso and Indonesian Rupiah as technical levels hold. The Malaysian Ringgit eyes a key trend line. Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/lcSLkOnJgQ https://t.co/4ofHIpGiTm
  • Trump says he needs to see a strong study on China's actions surrounding virus - BBG
  • The Dollar Index has broken below a multi-week consolidation / the May opening-range lows and keeps the focus lower heading into June. Get your $USD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/hkm3nIoyeh https://t.co/SzMeNFyPyp
  • RT @fxmacro: COVIDView: A Weekly Surveillance Summary of U.S. COVID-19 Activity | CDC https://t.co/Gtr0sUoyft
  • RT @globaltimesnews: The #US, rather than #China, will pay a hefty price for imposing sanctions against #HK in the latest broadsides aimed…
AUD/JPY Weekly Price Outlook: Aussie Plummets to Multi-Year Lows

AUD/JPY Weekly Price Outlook: Aussie Plummets to Multi-Year Lows

2019-01-03 18:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The Australian Dollar has already posted an impressive 8.6% range against the Japanese Yen just two days into the start of 2019 trade- keep in mind the entire 2017 range was just 14.8%. The recent collapse in price fueled a test (and brief stint below) a critical multi-year support range before rebounding sharply. It’s make-or-break into the close of the week. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/JPY weekly chart to start the year.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

Notes: For nearly five-years we’ve been highlighting a critical support zone in AUD/JPY at 72.15-74.22- a region defined by the 1.618% of the 2013 decline and the key 61.8% retracement of the 2008 advance. Price has respected this critical pivot-zone as support since the 2009 breakout and despite a break below 2016 / 2017 pitchfork support, the broader short-bias may be vulnerable while above this threshold heading into January trade.

A weekly close below would risk substantial losses in price with such a scenario targeting longer-term measured targets at 64.90. Initials resistance now stands with former pitchfork support (currently ~77.90s) backed by the October range lows at 78.56- a breach / close above this level is needed to suggest a more significant near-term low may be in place.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:The AUD/JPY collapse seen over the past few weeks has now tested & responded to a major multi-year support pivot and a close below is needed to keep the broader short-bias viable. This week already marks the largest weekly range since June 2016 (the yearly low was registered that week) and leaves the short-bias vulnerable into the start of the month while above 72.15. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. I’ll be on the lookout for possible price exhaustion on another attempt to break this key support zone. Expecting accelerated losses on a close below.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

AUD/JPY Trader Sentiment

AUD/JPY Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/JPY - the ratio stands at +3.21 (76.2% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since December 6th; price has moved 9.3% lower since then
  • Long positions are 21.2% lower than yesterday and 12.3% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 5.4% lower than yesterday and 11.5% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/JPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current AUD/JPY price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in AUD/JPY retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.