We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • RT @TenYearNote: Interesting... https://t.co/kFe5raHJ1G
  • RT @tracyalloway: A colorful history of supply disruptions in the oil market, via BAML: https://t.co/A7yRmCivj2
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.94%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.32%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/RnXunERDLP
  • $USD: Prices quickly dropped into last week’s close, and this week’s open has seen #DXY push right back to the resistance zone that runs from 98.33-98.50.Get your analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/KlnCP4dpQ9 https://t.co/OWTITUys0w
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 11.39% Silver: 2.85% Gold: 1.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/oBL5snDhmw
  • The geopolitical shock over the weekend had a clear impact on risk trends. In FX, my equally-weighted index of the Yen crosses had its biggest gap down in 3 months, ending an 8-day climb (longest since May 2017) https://t.co/8rEdU0GDgX
  • RT @bestepsnet: A Framework for Digital Taxation https://t.co/IFG7SqrGek France's digital tax is not a step in the right direction for gl…
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.33% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.06% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.21% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.43% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.66% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.67% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ZdhapOT5mb
  • RT @FirstSquawk: IRAN'S ROUHANI SAYS U.S. TROOPS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY LEAVE SYRIA
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.14% France 40: -0.16% US 500: -0.50% Wall Street: -0.64% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/UYYX9GiX1U
NZD/USD Weekly Price Outlook: Kiwi Rally Runs into Resistance

NZD/USD Weekly Price Outlook: Kiwi Rally Runs into Resistance

2018-12-11 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The New Zealand Dollar rallied more than 8% against the US Dollar since the yearly lows with the price breakout reversing off initial resistance last week. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly chart heading into the close of the year. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

NZD/USD Weekly Price Chart

Please add a description for the image.

Notes: In last month’s NZD/USD Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that Kiwi was testing multi-year pitchfork resistance around 6811/54 and, “a topside breach / close above this formation would suggest a more significant low is in place with such scenario targeting the 50% retracement / 52-week moving average at 6930/32.” Price registered at a high at 6969 last week before reversing sharply with weekly RSI struggling just below the 60-threshold.

Initial resistance remains steady at 6930 and is backed closely by the 200-week moving average at ~6980s – a breach / close above is needed to keep the long-bias viable with such a scenario targeting subsequent topside objectives at the 61.8% retracement at 7050 and the yearly open at 7094. Confluence weekly support rests at 6761 with broader bullish invalidation at now raised to 6632.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The breakout in NZD/USD has responded to initial resistance at 6930 and while the immediate risk remains for a pullback off these levels, the medium-term outlook remains constructive while above 6761. From a trading standpoint, we’ll favor fading weakness while above former slope resistance targeting a breakout towards yearly open resistance. I’ll publish an updated NZD/USD scalp report once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short NZD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.23 (44.8% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading.
  • Long positions are 12.8% higher than yesterday and 3.0% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 17.4% higher than yesterday and 37.4% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in NZD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Relevant NZD/USD Data Releases

NZD/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar– for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.