We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ASX 200 and AUD/JPY are at risk of losses as cases of Covid-19 continue to climb in Victoria, Australia’s second-most populous state. Get your #ASX market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/O0LNvhgsQo https://t.co/Xq2lDE6s1T
  • Risk performance disparity is front and center while systemic issues meet key event risk. My trading video for the week ahead; '#Dow, $EURUSD, $GBPUSD Breakout Levels and Events Next Week' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/07/11/Dow-EURUSD-GBPUSD-Breakout-Levels-and-Events-Next-Week.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/1Fp5OxRbiS
  • This week, EUR/USD rallied to a multi-week high. Will bulls keep leading the price next week? Get your #currencies update from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/zUozw703uC https://t.co/LIEcx52Xh0
  • The New Zealand Dollar is aiming higher, with NZD/USD eyeing fresh yearly highs while AUD/NZD may be carving out a bearish Head and Shoulders chart pattern. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/osFxXvq5xF https://t.co/Uk2RhkEyQO
  • A plethora of UK data, however, external factors remain the key driver as GBP/USD edges towards 200DMA. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/bWJGyiUSpQ https://t.co/qAg8NrAZor
  • The Japanese #Yen may rise if a growing number of coronavirus cases around the world puts a premium on anti-risk assets. JPY’s gains may be amplified if corporate earnings fail to impress investors. Get your #currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/yP4revKq6J https://t.co/7smgRKspLU
  • The US Dollar index (DXY) may face range bound conditions over the coming days amid the failed attempt to test the June low (95.75). Get your #currencies update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/GsBcE6Z4G6 https://t.co/HIJ4vvcBIg
  • The Dow Jones could fall based on positioning signals, will the growth-linked Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar follow? If so, what are the technical barriers ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/yJrlR5C00P https://t.co/FzkIBlJLHG
  • Further gains in USD/IDR could be curbed as USD/PHP establishes a floor around 2017 lows. USD/MYR may fall next as USD/SGD fast approaches a key falling trend line.Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/9JgZm2n8Fl https://t.co/FeBuqJ64qB
  • Japanese Yen Outlook Bullish on Coronavirus Surge, US Earnings Season https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/jpy/2020/07/11/Japanese-Yen-Outlook-Bullish-on-Coronavirus-Surge-US-Earnings-Season.html
Crude Oil Price Outlook: WTI Catches Support at $50- Can It Hold?

Crude Oil Price Outlook: WTI Catches Support at $50- Can It Hold?

2018-11-28 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Crude oil has plummeted a staggering 33% from the yearly highs registered just last month with prices poised to snap a seven-week losing streak after rebounding from nearby confluence support. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the Crude Oil (WTI)weekly chart heading into the close of the month. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Crude Oil Beginners Guide

Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart (WTI)

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI - Weekly

Notes: Earlier this month our ‘bottom line’ highlighted that crude oil prices were, “approaching the first major support confluence at 57.45-58.10.” We noted that a break below this zone would risk, “accelerated losses in crude prices with such a scenario targeting the 55-handle backed by the 200-week moving average around ~52.25

Crude broke lower days later with price closing below the 200-week moving average last week. Initial support rests at 50.25 where the 50-line of the descending pitchfork extending off the early highs converges on the 76.4% retracement of the 2017 advance. It’s worth noting that typically I’m not a fan of these steep slopes but given the recent price action, we’ll take what we can get.

Initial resistance now stands back at the 200-week moving average (currently ~52.20) with a breach above 55.21 needed to alleviate further downside pressure. Broader bearish invalidation rests with the yearly open at 60.06. A downside break from here keeps the focus on more significant support zone at the median-line of the 2015/2016 slope / 61.8% retracement at 45.45-46.24.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Crude prices could see some back & fill here but the risk remains lower sub-55.21. Note that momentum is still in oversold territory and from a trading standpoint there is nothing to do on the long-side just yet. Ideal scenario sees a washout towards 46 before mounting a more meaningful recovery. I’ll publish an updated scalp report once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil - the ratio stands at +5.39 (84.4% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since October 11th; price has moved 31.0% lower since then
  • Long positions are10.2% lower than yesterday and 12.9% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 5.6% higher than yesterday and 26.0% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Crude prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday & compared with last week andthe recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Oil - US Crude price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in Crude Oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.