We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian and New Zealand Dollars trimmed their gains as optimism on the US-China “phase one” trade deal faded. NZD/USD is at risk to turning lower on signs of technical indecision $AUDUSD $NZDUSD #tradewars - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2019/12/16/Australian-Dollar-and-New-Zealand-Dollar-Outlook-as-Week-Begins.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/SmVBWwojc3
  • - The Singapore Dollar (SGD) presents a unique undertaking for traders - It is guided by the MAS, which manages the exchange rate instead of short-term rates - Learn the principals of developing an SGD fundamental forecast to trade USD/SGD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/09/03/The-Singapore-Dollar-and-MAS-What-is-SGD-and-How-to-Trade-it.html
  • #DidYouKnow a #Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/eWM70sTfq3
  • Natural Gas trading is popular among traders due to its volatility. How can you trade this? Find out here: https://t.co/GSzSS9fn7Z https://t.co/bl0lp9NtkQ
  • #EURUSD pivot points (daily) – S3: 1.0991, S2: 1.1065, S1: 1.1093, R1: 1.1167, R2: 1.1214, R3: 1.1288- https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Hello there, traders! Themes for this week's webinar: - US-China #tradewar - #HongKongProstests: Carrie Lam's visit to Beijing - #UKElections2019 recap + outlook - Government shutdown in 2020? - Update on #RCEP - CRUCIAL rate decision this week⬇️ https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987
  • With increasing volatility in weather patterns, how might storms, hurricanes, and floods rattle the supply chain for petroleum-based products and impact crude oil prices? Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/O4dgBl47fq https://t.co/eMb7iCfdqS
  • Join analyst @DavidJSong at 5:30 PM ET/10:30 PM GMT for your weekly update on key news trading events. Register here: https://t.co/gBlrRpCc55 https://t.co/1rVzPr6gx4
  • See the DailyFX Fundamental and Technical forecasts for the week ahead on the major currencies, indices and commodities here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2019/12/15/Dow-Pound-and-Aussie-Dollar-Test-Post-Trade-War-Election-Breakouts.html
  • The US-China agreement brings this scene from camp cinema history to mind: https://t.co/WsfoGMZbw1 via @GIPHY https://t.co/h045efj8Em
Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook– WTI Plunges to Fresh Yearly Lows

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook– WTI Plunges to Fresh Yearly Lows

2018-11-13 18:00:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Oil prices have continued to plummet with crude attempting its sixth consecutive weekly decline into a critical support confluence at the yearly lows. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the Crude Oil (WTI) weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Crude Oil Beginners Guide

Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart (WTI)

Crude Oil Price Chart - Weekly

Notes: In last month’s Crude Oil Weekly Technical Perspective we highlighted a critical support confluence at the lower bounds of a multi-year formation in price around 67.83. A break lower in late-October has fueled a decline of more than 23% from the yearly highs with price now targeting the next major support hurdle at 57.45-58.10 – a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2016 advance, the 2018 opening-range low and the lower parallel of the descending pitchfork extending off the yearly highs.

The focus is on this critical range with the immediate short-bias at risk near-term while above 57.45. Initial resistance stands at the yearly open at 60.06 backed by the median-line / August low at 64.40 (near-term bearish invalidation). A break / close lower from here risks accelerated losses in crude prices with such a scenario targeting the 55-handle backed by the 200-week moving average around ~52.25.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:Crude Oil is approaching the first major support confluence at 57.45-58.10. We’re looking for a reaction here with a break / close below targeting subsequent objectives towards the 200-week moving average. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short exposure / lower protective stop – be on the lookout for a possible near-term exhaustion low. That said, this is a make-or-break level for crude at downtrend support; watch the weekly close for guidance. I’ll publish an updated Crude Oil Scalp Report once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment

Please add a description for the image.
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil - the ratio stands at +5.21 (83.9% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since October 11th; price has moved 20.2% lower since then
  • Long positions are3.5% higher than yesterday and 18.1% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 14.0% higher than yesterday and 19.6% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Crude Oilprices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday & compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Crude Oil price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in Crude Oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.