News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • #SP500 futures tumbling through Bear Flag support at the 3300 mark. Implied measured move suggests a push to 3000 could be on the cards if price breaks below the June high (3231.25) $ES $SPX https://t.co/o26aOMmin8 https://t.co/pS7A9CVmt6
  • For those who like taking a look through memory lane, stocks (SPX) are heading to its historically worst patch in the year (Historical average based on 1990-2019 performance) https://t.co/RuhNxy6TYr
  • US futures tumble and European equities trade sharply lower: - S&P 500 (-0.34%) - Nasdaq 100 (-1.6%) - Dow Jones (-2.08%) - DAX (-2.86%)
  • $USDJPY plunging to its lowest levels since March as support at the July low (104.18) gives way. Daily close below the 104 level could bring the March 12 swing-low (103.08) into focus Is $USDJPY headed to parity? https://t.co/QtlWIPKbU6
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/7fMGgU3vUn
  • RT @MrMBrown: $GBP looks to be in for a rough ride this week - mounting speculation of tighter covid restrictions; Brexit trade talks remai…
  • 🇪🇸 Balance of Trade (JUL) Actual: €-0.31B Previous: €1.48B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-21
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.14%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 72.33%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/pzRhq9H8WP
  • Heads Up:🇪🇸 Balance of Trade (JUL) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: €1.48B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-21
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell over 1.8%. It is likely to end the day with a large bearish candlestick, which flags more downside risk. Breaking below 24,000 support will likely open the door for further losses with an eye at 23,780 - the 61.8% Fibonacci downward extension. https://t.co/mrYUt8dBvX
AUD/JPY Rallies to Fresh Yearly Highs – Initial 2017 Targets in View

AUD/JPY Rallies to Fresh Yearly Highs – Initial 2017 Targets in View

2017-07-18 17:10:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

To receive Michael’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points

AUD/JPY Weekly

AUD/JPY Weekly Chart

Technical Outlook: AUD/JPY closed above technical resistance at 87.55/64 last week, keeping the broader long-bias intact. Price is pushing through the yearly opening-range highs on this stretch with the rally now eyeing our initial yearly target at 90.64-91.23. This range is defined by the 1.618% extension of the 2016 advance and the 50% retracement of the decline off the 2014 highs. Note that RSI is testing the 70-threshold and the weekly close will be important here.

AUD/JPY Daily

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

Today’s high (so far) registered just pips ahead of the July 2015 swing lows at 89.16 before pulling back. Note that near-term slope resistance converges on this region and further highlights the importance of today’s close. Interim daily support now rests at 87.55/64 with broader bullish invalidation at 86.93. A topside breach targets subsequent resistance targets at 90.03 & 90.64/72.

Learn more about Multi-Timeframe Analysis in Michael’s three-part trading series

AUD/JPY 240min

AUD/JPY 240min Chart

Notes: A closer look at the 240min chart highlights an embedded ascending channel formation we’ve been tracking off the June lows with price failing to hold above the upper bounds. The immediate topside bias is at risk while below this threshold but the broader outlook remains constructive while within this formation. Interim support at 88.18 backed by 87.55/64.

From a trading standpoint, I’ll be looking for signs of near-term exhaustion here with a pullback to offer more favorable long-entries. Added caution is warranted heading deeper in the week with Aussie employment figures and the BoJ likely to fuel increased volatility in their respective crosses

AUD/JPY Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-short AUD/JPY- the ratio stands at -2.19 (31.3% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Retail has been net-short since June 29th- price has moved 4.1% higher since then
  • Long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday but 31.4% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 26.4% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/JPY prices may continue to rise. That said, Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed near-term trading bias.
  • Bottom line: Sentiment is coming off extremes and highlights the near-term risk to this advance. Ultimately, I would be looking to fade a broader pullback in the pair.

What to look for in AUD/JPY retail positioning - Click here to learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant Data Releases

AUD/JPY Economic Docket

Join Michael on July 21st for a Live Webinar on the Foundations of Technical Analysis- Register for Free Here!

Other Setups in Play:

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES