We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Silver is a precious metal commodity that investors use as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset. Find out what are some strategies and tips to trade silver here: https://t.co/k4tVcFuwxW #CommoditieswithDailyFX https://t.co/zXCSmH2HLX
  • Markets are trying to maintain a bullish tilt as a new week rolls around, a look ahead at the charts of the #Dow, #DAX, and #FTSE. Get your technical analysis on major world indices from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/bYjRDvQsdM https://t.co/mbg0rUbv3K
  • Trade conflict is clearly awful for the broad world economy, but some countries are already benefiting from it. More stand to do so. Spotting them early could be profitable. Get your update on the #tradewar from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/og0VAPAqwm https://t.co/xB8hYUj4OA
  • #Gold prices may suffer if better-than-expected US economic data and progress on US-China trade negotiations cool 2020 Fed rate cuts and alleviate demand for anti-fiat hedges. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/3ula2sUpqL $gld https://t.co/2iZwxcm3wP
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here:https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/KCZ48rDnhy
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/tTXcw1b7Tp
  • RT @dlacalle_IA: ... “Temporary” Fed plans to double repo market intervention to avoid cash crunch https://t.co/j6N3Qmo6HX
  • RT @HeathaT: The @USTradeRep "fact sheet" on the US-China deal is pretty light on details, but if you're looking for something written down…
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within the financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy within a trading system can enhance a trader’s market analysis technique. Find out how you can use it from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/1H5UASpHb7
  • What is the best time to trade #forex? Find out: https://t.co/M9R46rmPUK #tradingstyle https://t.co/k6z9p9v4nY
USD/JPY Rally Vulnerable Ahead of U.S. CPI

USD/JPY Rally Vulnerable Ahead of U.S. CPI

2017-07-13 17:00:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

To receive Michael’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY responded to a key resistance range this week at 114.37/60. The pair is loaded with technical considerations into the 115-handle which include the 100% extension of the April rally, the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 range and the May high.

The pullback is in focus with the broader outlook weighted to the topside while above the highlighted support confluence around 111.57/79 where the 100 & 200-day moving averages converges on the June opening range highs. A breach higher still has to contend with key resistance targets at 115.52 & 116.08 before we the next big leg higher.

USD/JPY 240min

USD/JPY 240min Chart

Notes: A closer look at the 240min chart highlights a near-term ascending pitchfork formation carried over from last month. The decline is now approaching confluence support at the lower median-line parallel / 112.73- A break below this threshold would suggest a larger correction is underway with such a scenario risking a drop into 112.32 & more critical support at 111.57/79 (broader bullish invalidation and an area of interest for exhaustion / long-entries).

Interim resistance stands a 113.85 backed by the weekly highs. From a trading standpoint, I’ll be looking to see if the median-line offers resistance on a rebound with the advance off the June lows at risk while below. Added caution is warranted heading into the close of the week with the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Retail Sales figures likely to fuel increased volatility in the USD crosses.

USD/JPY IG Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long USD/JPY- the ratio stands at +1.03 (50.8% of traders are long) – weak bearish / neutral reading
  • Long positions are 5.2% higher than yesterday but 4.0% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 7.3% lower than yesterday and 3.3% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. That said, positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week andthe combination of current sentiment gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias.
  • Bottom line: Sentiment is coming off extremes last seen in May (which was the last top in USDJPY) and continues to highlight the near-term risk to this advance.

What to look for in USD/JPY retail positioning - Click here to learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant Data Releases

USD/JPY Economic Docket

Join Michael on July 21st for a Live Webinar on the Foundations of Technical Analysis- Register for Free Here!

Other Setups in Play:

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.