We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $TRY: Geopolitical tensions are once again on the rise between the US and Turkey with the latter expanding its incursion in Northeast Syria. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/ofNdYslQnz https://t.co/YKO5f7QIuw
  • The 10-year / 3-month US Treasury yield curve has moved back above 0.0 just before the IMF's updates its growth forecasts. As you can see historically, correcting doesn't preclude a drag into recession and the IMF's outlook will not be encouraging https://t.co/33cuGqqmTV
  • US set to impose sanctions on Turkey as early as Monday $USDTRY
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.32% Gold: 0.16% Oil - US Crude: -2.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/SMAcBIzZFH
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.13% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.38% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.46% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.73% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kqe35jOTKg
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.12% Germany 30: 0.09% France 40: 0.07% US 500: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Pttcexr8bT
  • Update on Commodities: Crude Oil: -2.43% Nat Gas: +1.36% Gold: +0.53% Silver: +0.71% Copper: -0.04% Soybeans +0.01%
  • Weekly Trade Levels: US #Dollar, $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, $USDCAD, #Gold & #Oil (Webinar Archive ) - https://t.co/9eJtCIP68t
  • Sentiment in the #Euro continued to deteriorate as speculators cut their gross longs by roughly 10k contracts, resulting in a $1.3bln increase in net shorts to over $10bln. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/CbpA1kKbV8 https://t.co/cvpmJ2gvPO
  • UK PM Boris Johnson: Second #Brexit referendum would be more toxic than the first $GBP
USD/JPY Rally Vulnerable Ahead of U.S. CPI

USD/JPY Rally Vulnerable Ahead of U.S. CPI

2017-07-13 17:00:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

To receive Michael’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY responded to a key resistance range this week at 114.37/60. The pair is loaded with technical considerations into the 115-handle which include the 100% extension of the April rally, the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 range and the May high.

The pullback is in focus with the broader outlook weighted to the topside while above the highlighted support confluence around 111.57/79 where the 100 & 200-day moving averages converges on the June opening range highs. A breach higher still has to contend with key resistance targets at 115.52 & 116.08 before we the next big leg higher.

USD/JPY 240min

USD/JPY 240min Chart

Notes: A closer look at the 240min chart highlights a near-term ascending pitchfork formation carried over from last month. The decline is now approaching confluence support at the lower median-line parallel / 112.73- A break below this threshold would suggest a larger correction is underway with such a scenario risking a drop into 112.32 & more critical support at 111.57/79 (broader bullish invalidation and an area of interest for exhaustion / long-entries).

Interim resistance stands a 113.85 backed by the weekly highs. From a trading standpoint, I’ll be looking to see if the median-line offers resistance on a rebound with the advance off the June lows at risk while below. Added caution is warranted heading into the close of the week with the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Retail Sales figures likely to fuel increased volatility in the USD crosses.

USD/JPY IG Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long USD/JPY- the ratio stands at +1.03 (50.8% of traders are long) – weak bearish / neutral reading
  • Long positions are 5.2% higher than yesterday but 4.0% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 7.3% lower than yesterday and 3.3% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. That said, positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week andthe combination of current sentiment gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias.
  • Bottom line: Sentiment is coming off extremes last seen in May (which was the last top in USDJPY) and continues to highlight the near-term risk to this advance.

What to look for in USD/JPY retail positioning - Click here to learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant Data Releases

USD/JPY Economic Docket

Join Michael on July 21st for a Live Webinar on the Foundations of Technical Analysis- Register for Free Here!

Other Setups in Play:

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.