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GBP/JPY Into Support Ahead of UK Retail Sales, Japanese CPI

GBP/JPY Into Support Ahead of UK Retail Sales, Japanese CPI

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • GBPJPY at support ahead of UK Retail Sales, Japanese CPI
  • Release to threaten immediate short-bias
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

GBPJPY 30min

GBP/JPY Into Support Ahead of UK Retail Sales, Japanese CPI

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: GBPJPY is checking a near-term support confluence at 1.5830/48 ahead of Thursday's UK Retail Sales release. This region is defined by the 61.8% extension off the lows, the 61.8% retracement of the advance and a sliding parallel of the operative median-line formation extending off the 3/7 low. We’re likely to see some recovery off this mark but the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside while below the sliding parallel extending off the 3/10 high / 161.25. A break below this support region targets the lower median-line parallel (~157.60) backed by the 156.72/93Fibonacci confluence.

Keep in mind markets are already expecting a weaker print on UK retail sales with consensus estimates calling for a drawdown for the month of February, leaving the risk to the topside for the sterling on a stronger-than-expected print. Interim resistance targets stands at 159.40 backed by the median-line / 160.12, 160.75 & our bearish invalidation level at the weekly opening-range high. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

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GBP/JPY Into Support Ahead of UK Retail Sales, Japanese CPI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has held a net-long position since mid-December with the ratio standing at 1.42 (59% of traders are long- up from 54% the previous day)
  • After hitting an extreme above +3.0 at the start of the year, the ratio has narrowed substantially since January suggesting that the retail long-bias may be waning (bullish)
  • Open interest is 0.8% higher than yesterday and 4.0% above its monthly average heading into the UK & Japanese data prints tomorrow

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Relevant Data Releases This Week

GBP/JPY Into Support Ahead of UK Retail Sales, Japanese CPI

Other Setups in Play:

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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