News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • AUD/USD sharply higher following last week's decline $AUDUSD https://t.co/cxrl9O6Jvi
  • The US Dollar has put in a very strong push since the Thursday lows – and for traders looking to fade that move, the long side of GBP/USD may be attractive. Get your $GBP market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/17J9kCb8ff https://t.co/N1zNhEWLHh
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.21% Gold: -0.71% Silver: -0.76% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/0ayjP8t3rP
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 91.57%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 66.37%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/7IShY2t1tw
  • Biden administration to use 'all available tools' to challenge unfair China trade practices, still conducting comprehensive review of trade policy with China - BBG $USDCNH
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 2.42% Wall Street: 2.17% FTSE 100: 0.26% Germany 30: 0.12% France 40: 0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/9PszirwcDh
  • $USDJPY is hitting fresh multi-month highs today as the pair continues to trade above the 106.50 level. The last time this pair traded at that level was in early August. $USD $JPY https://t.co/VP9GskwYOJ
  • $WTI Crude Oil is down over 4% off of today's highs, falling from an intraday high above 62.50 to currently trade right around 60.00, its lowest level since early last week. $USO $OIL https://t.co/XrE768A6sK
  • https://t.co/SBKsuxOE0j
  • 🇧🇷 Balance of Trade (FEB) Actual: $1.2B Expected: $0.9B Previous: $-1.125B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
GBP/USD Eyes March High on Sticky UK CPI- Bullish Invalidation 1.4174

GBP/USD Eyes March High on Sticky UK CPI- Bullish Invalidation 1.4174

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • GBPUSDat support ahead of UK CPI, Retail Sales
  • Release to threaten immediate long-bias
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

GBPUSD 30min

GBP/USD Eyes March High on Sticky UK CPI- Bullish Invalidation 1.4174

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: Sterling is testing near-term confluence support at 1.4349/53 where the 23.6% retracement of the advance converges on the 61.8% retracement of the February decline & median-line support extending off the 2016 low. Note that we are coming off median-line resistance and a break below this level would shift the immediate focus lower towards support objectives at 1.4254 & our broader bullish invalidation level at 1.4174 / the lower median-line parallel.

Confluence resistance stands at 1.4490 and a breach above this threshold keeps our long-bias in play targeting the February high-day close at 1.4588, 1.4653/67 & the 2016 open at 1.4731. Should the data show sticky price growth in domestic economy, look for the pound to remain well supported as investors begin further pricing out the likelihood of additional monetary support from the BoE. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of SuccessfulTraders” series.

GBP/USD Eyes March High on Sticky UK CPI- Bullish Invalidation 1.4174
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) appears to show a potential shift in retail behavior as the crowd flipped back net-long GBP/USD on March 17th but recent trends suggest that sentiment may continue to come off extremes as the ratio carves a series of lower highs in 2016.
  • After hitting an extreme above +3.0 at the start of the year, the ratio has narrowed substantially since January with last week’s net-short reading marking the first major change in positioning since November 19th.
  • It’s worth noting that open interest is 3.4% lower than yesterday & 5.6% below its monthly average heading into the end of the quarter with a further downward trend in the ratio suggesting that the retail long-bias may be waning.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Relevant Data Releases This Week

GBP/USD Eyes March High on Sticky UK CPI- Bullish Invalidation 1.4174

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or ClickHere to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES