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AUD/USD Post-FOMC Rally at Risk Ahead of Australian Labor Report

AUD/USD Post-FOMC Rally at Risk Ahead of Australian Labor Report

2016-03-16 20:14:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Talking Points

  • AUDUSD surges post FOMC- Weekly opening-range high in view
  • Key Australian Labor Report to threaten the near-term reversal
  • Immediate focus is higher- broader bullish invalidation at 7400

AUDUSD 30min

AUD/USD Post-FOMC Rally at Risk Ahead of Australian Labor Report

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: AUDUSD reversed course sharply on the back of today’s FOMC interest rate decision where the committee cited a more dovish tone on the outlook for rates moving forward. The reversal has taken Aussie back through the weekly open with the pair looking to mark a daily outside reversal candle (bullish).

Interim resistance is being tested at the 78.6% retracement of the decline at 7554 with a breach above confluence resistance at the weekly opening-range high / the April low-day close at 7590/92 targeting a more critical resistance zone at 7644/52. This level is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the May decline and the 1.6185% extension of the advance off the 2016 low. Interim support rests at 7481/89 backed by 7442 & our bullish invalidation level at 7407. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

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AUD/USD Post-FOMC Rally at Risk Ahead of Australian Labor Report

  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short AUD/USD since March 1st with positioning climbing to an extreme of -2 early in the month
  • Retail FX sentiment continues to move away from recent extremes as the ratio currently stands at -1.49 even as short positions have fallen 25% from the previous week- suggesting that short interest may be waning

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Relevant Data Releases This Week

AUD/USD Post-FOMC Rally at Risk Ahead of Australian Labor Report

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or ClickHere to be added to his email distribution list

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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