News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/GyrGov5FMU
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.23% Silver: -0.48% Gold: -0.65% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/AyuswTIIqG
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.15% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.00% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.00% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.06% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/PLLBgfsdSO
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in USD/CHF are long at 76.22%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 86.42%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/uYbrSUoFuc
  • S&P 500, Nikkei 225 Outlook: Stocks Hit Record High as VIX Falls https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/14/SP-500-Nikkei-225-Outlook-Stocks-Hit-Record-High-as-VIX-Falls.html https://t.co/uJUmHoLgfL
  • Please join @IlyaSpivak at 22:00 EST/2:00 GMT for your cross-market weekly outlook webinar. Register here: https://t.co/E213bTtq5C https://t.co/0mnH4HOZU2
  • *Schedule Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar on Monday at 8:30am EST (12:30GMT) with DailyFX - https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H Mid-Week Market Update on Wednesday at 9:30am EST (13:30GMT) with IG - https://t.co/8SFBJxNZrA
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/kHnKrEkI2r
  • 8 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended higher, with 69.5% of the index’s constituents closing in the green. Financials (+0.61%) and information technology (+0.56%) outperformed, while healthcare (-0.73%) and real estate (-0.59%) trailed behind. https://t.co/MiGE1XFknG
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/3US2UaRckO
US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP, USD/MYR

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP, USD/MYR

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

US Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit – Talking Points

  • US Dollar gained against SGD, IDR, PHP amid Nasdaq 100 declines
  • Market mood may sour further, risking emerging market capital flight
  • Are US-China tensions heating up again? Bank of Malaysia is ahead

US Dollar ASEAN Weekly Recap

The haven-oriented US Dollar cautiously gained against its ASEAN counterparts this past week as signs of volatility resurfaced in financial markets. The Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso and Indonesian Rupiah weakened as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell the most since over the course of 5 days since March. A dismal US ISM services report may have spooked investors, resulting in capital flight.

The Singapore Dollar was even unable to find support on less-than-dismal local retail sales data, highlighting the focus for USD/SGD on external risk. A notable standout last week was the Malaysian Ringgit which slightly outperformed the US Dollar, see chart below. Most of its gains occurred after local markets reopened after the National Day holiday on Monday. USD/MYR then proceeded to trade largely sideways.

Discover your trading personality to help find optimal forms of analyzing financial markets

Last Week’s US Dollar Performance

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP, USD/MYR

*ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index averages USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/PHP

External Event Risk – Volatility, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission

The rise in the VIX ‘fear gauge’ could place the US Dollar on the offense in a historically volatile month for equities. US markets are offline Monday for the Labor Day holiday, creating an environment ripe for volatility due to thinner-than-usual liquidity conditions. If last week’s risk aversion compounds further, we could see the Greenback regain some lost ground against its ASEAN counterparts.

The US economic calendar docket is relatively quiet this week. Investors may focus on the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission on Wednesday. It will hold an annual hearing on developments this year. Lately, US-China tensions seem to be rising heading into the November Presidential Election, particularly around technology. Further unease between the two powerhouses could boost USD.

What risks could be in store for financial markets if US-China tensions heat up? Join me at 00:00 GMT on September 10 for an overview!

ASEAN, South Asia Event Risk – Bank of Malaysia, Philippine Trade Data, India Industrial Production

A top-tier event risk within the ASEAN region will be the Bank of Malaysia rate decision on Thursday. Economists anticipate that the overnight policy rate may remain unchanged at 1.75%. Traders may focus on the central bank’s latest assessment on economic conditions. The second-quarter GDP plunge was worse-than-expected. With that in mind, the Ringgit could weaken if policymakers paint a bleak picture for growth.

Before the Bank of Malaysia, USD/PHP will be eyeing Philippine trade data. Exports are anticipated to shrink 9.9% y/y in July, softer than the -13.3% prior outcome. On Friday, USD/INR will be awaiting the latest readings on Indian industrial production. With these in mind, the risk of emerging market capital flight ahead could maintain the focus for these currencies on external threats.

On September 4th, the 20-day rolling correlation coefficient between my ASEAN-based US Dollar index and my Wall Street index was -0.82 versus -0.80 from one week ago. Values closer to -1 indicate an increasingly inverse relationship, though it is important to recognize that correlation does not imply causation.

ASEAN-Based USD Index Versus Wall Street Index – Daily Chart

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP, USD/MYR

Chart Created Using TradingView

*ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index averages USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/PHP

*Wall Street Index averages S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures

-- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES