0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Gold and silver prices may turn lower based on bearish signals from IG Client Sentiment. Technical signals also warn the XAG/USD may fall, will XAU/USD meet the same fate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zzO5TdogF4 https://t.co/Ga5XScyMGH
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Business Confidence (Q2) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-05
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Business Confidence (Q1) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 104.82 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-05
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.73%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 77.16%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/7daoPL4gxF
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.38% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.37% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.23% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.14% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.12% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/R3by8hR5Gt
  • 🇮🇩 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2) Actual: -4.19% Expected: -3.49% Previous: -2.41% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-05
  • 🇮🇩 GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2) Actual: -5.32% Expected: -4.61% Previous: 2.97% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-05
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.29% France 40: 0.19% FTSE 100: 0.19% Wall Street: 0.11% US 500: 0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/wweCoYuhgL
  • Recent changes in IGCS warns that: #DowJones may rise #CrudeOil could climb $USDCAD might extend losses Read my full report here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/08/05/Dow-Jones-Crude-Oil-May-Rise-as-USDCAD-Falls-on-Positioning-Signals.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/5JYj5LUKDJ
  • The Japanese Yen may fall against its major counterparts as it enters the second half of an 8-year cycle. AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY rates eye push to fresh yearly highs. Get your $JPY market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/EZUxcPSylS https://t.co/i4QVQwnJUO
USD/SEK May Rise on Riksbank View. Political Breakthrough Ahead?

USD/SEK May Rise on Riksbank View. Political Breakthrough Ahead?

2018-11-19 01:30:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:

TALKING POINTS – USD/SEK, SWEDEN, ANNIE LOOF, RIKSBANK

  • Annie Loof of the Center Party offers hope for political gridlock break
  • October’s sot inflation data cooled speculation on December rate hike
  • Divergent technical, fundamental views call for patience on USD/SEK

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

Sweden’s unprecedented political gridlock may have an end in sight…although a breakthrough is still highly unlikely. Annie Loof, head of the Center Party, was given the task of forming a coalition. She has just one week for the task, but if progress appears hopeful, there is a chance for an extension.

The gridlock has resulted in large part from the rise of the nationalist and neo-Nazi rooted Sweden Democrats Party (SD). From 2014-2018, 11% of the center-left Social Democrat support went to the SD’s. This likely stems from Sweden’s recent strain in social cohesion as a result of the migrant influx from 2015. Sweden has taken in the highest number of asylum seekers per capita out of the entire European Union.

Last week, Ulf Kristersson – leader of The Alliance coalition – was proposed by speaker of the Riksdag Andreas Norlen to be Prime Minister. He was ultimately voted down. This comes after he and the recently ousted PM Stefan Lofven – leader of the Social Democrats – failed to create their own respective coalitions.

Kristersson’s rejection came from within his own grouping. Loof joined other parties within The Alliance and voted Kristersson down, thereby fracturing the center-right bloc. The hope for her success likely stems from her party’s politically neutral stance – as is embedded in its name – which would allow for easier talks across the aisle. However, she has stated that under no circumstances will she cooperate with SD.

SOFT PRICES DATA, POLITICAL TURMOILCOOLS RIKSBANK OUTLOOK

The rise of nationalist parties and their effect on political alliances and party policies have significant implications. The reshuffling of political parties is inextricably linked to a reformation of economic agendas that reflect the new alliances and coalitions. This in turn will affect economic activity and monetary.

The Riksbank – Sweden’s central bank – has recently cited the ongoing political gridlock as a factor in its monetary policy. Meanwhile, October’s disappointing inflation print (2.4% on-year vs. 2.5% expected) appeared to encourage a dovish shift in the markets’ rate hike outlook, with traders now looking for an increase in February rather than December.

USD/SEK TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD/SEK in recent months has formed what looks to be a Rising Wedge, indicating bearish reversalpotential. Negative RSI divergence also signals that the pair might be topping out soon. Support established in the beginning of the year has been broken and a ceiling capping gains since mid-August appears to be pressuring prices downward. If the wedge floor at 9.0002 is broken on a daily closing basis, the next line of support may be the late Septemberswinglow at 8.7523.

USD/SEK Chart Setup Diverges with Fundamental Outlook

USD/SEK - Daily Chart

The fundamental backdrop seems to argue for the opposite outcome however, with USD/SEK rising as weak inflation and political turmoil weighing on the Krona while an unrepentantly hawkish Federal Reserve continues to offer support to the US Dollar. If the pair breaks immediate resistance at 9.1865, the Wedge top at 9.2484 lines up as the next upside barrier.

The seeming disparity between the fundamental and technical considerations at play argue against taking a USD/SEK trade at this time. A prudent strategy might be to wait until this disparity is resolved, either with a decisive shift in the chart setup or a substantive change in the fundamental narrative.

USD/SEK TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.