Talking Points:
- US, German, UK and Japan 10-year government bond yields climbed Thursday
- German 10-year bunds were the most aggressive with yields touching 18-month highs
- Stocks also declined as the markets continued digesting FOMC and ECB minutes
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US, German, UK and Japan government bond yields rose Thursday as investors weighed took stock of global monetary policy following FOMC and ECB minutes. German 10-year rates were the most aggressive climbing 19.66% to 0.56%, an 18-month high. In addition, the move to the upside broke a range which the bund had oscillated within throughout the year.
Among the other significant movements in the sovereign bond market was the US 10-year yields rising 0.68% to 2.38% - approximately a 2-month high. Identical maturity UK yields ascended 4.4% to 5-month highs reaching 1.31%. In Japan, the JGB rate climbed 13.04% to hit 0.10%, also a 5-month high.
The advance in major bond yields occurred simultaneously, starting around 9:00 GMT after a French 30-year government bond auction. There, the bid-to-cover ratio dropped to 1.53 from 1.93 as the weighted average yield rose to 1.87% from 1.76% indicating waning demand.
A little later in the day, the European Central Bank released the minutes from its June monetary policy statement. The text of the document revealed that policymakers considered dropping their pledge to expand or extend the bond-buying program if necessary. That presents the possible early sign of a significant change in the dynamic of global monetary policy that has escalated to extreme accommodation over the past decade.
Just the day before, the Fed released the minutes from their June interest rate decision. There, members were divided on the timing of shrinking the balance sheet. But, the overall consensus was that the FOMC wanted to begin said process sometime this year.
Deviating from the traditional correlation, stocks took a hit as the markets continued digesting relatively hawkish monetary policy tones. Euro Stoxx 50 closed the day 0.47% lower, FTSE 100 also fell 0.41% and the DAX was down 0.58%.
Looking ahead, there are a couple of major event risk on the docket that may fuel or cool recent action in global bonds. Over the next two days, there will be the 2017 G20 summit in Hamburg where global leaders will discuss critical themes such as economic growth, international trade and financial market regulation. Also Friday, traders will have their eyes on June’s US employment report.
