EUR/USD Attempts Bearish Key Day As Dollar Gains On US Yield Rise
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- EUR/USD falls to 1.0920, close below 1.0947 secures bearish key day following Macron victory
- USD/JPY rises above 113 near 100-DMA on rising US Yields, VIX below 10 for first time since ‘07
- Crude Oil fails to rise despite rumors of longer and deeper OPEC production curb
Despite the market-favorable outcome of a Macro victory in the French presidential election as traders were able to shelve fears of ‘Frexit’, the EUR declined on Monday. A close below 1.0947 would open up a Bearish key day, which could lead to a further set-back in EUR/USD after a few solid weeks of gains. The floor that many traders are looking at in the short-term is the 1.0821 level, which was the low following the gap higher from the first round of the French presidential election process. Traders will also see on the chart below that the Monday morning high on EUR/USD aligns with the trendline resistance of the 1-year trendline. Despite short-term bias for further downside on a close below 1.0947, traders should be on the watch for a resumption higher as option premiums are showing that EUR/USD downside-protection is fetching its lowest premium over a two-month tenor for 2017.
Traders looking for a more favorable USD set-up may prefer to look at USD/JPY. On Monday , USD/JPY traded above the daily Ichimoku cloud as JPY weakness remained taking the pair to the higest levels since mid-march and setting up a move above the 100-DMA (113.15). A breakout should keep traders watching the early March higher near 115. Given the move of the highly correlated US Treasury 10yr yield above the 50-DMA, USD/JPY could find the upside little contended. JPY crosses have maintained an upward bias given the risk-on environment we’re currently in as evidenced by the first time the CBOE VIX has traded below 10 since February 2007.
Lastly, Crude Oil is finding it hard to catch a break. Despite encouraging word that OPEC leaders were said to be discussing deeper cuts that lasted into 2018 (i.e., longer than the original extention planned) Crude oil remains offered. Some of the doubt may be commodity wide, and not just Crude Oil. On Monday, Chinese copper imports fell 30 percent in April, the lowest since October showing that a key purchaser of global commodities may help lead demand lower. Naturally, this has lead to many commodities like Iron Ore moving into bear market territory in what appears to be a capitulation type move of many base metals in mid-Q2. Silver is in the midst of it’s longest losing streak since 1980. 1
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Closing Bell’s Top Chart: May 8, 2017, EUR/USD fails to gain traction after Macron victory at trendline
Germany 30: Retail trader data shows 37.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.64 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 20 when Germany 30 traded near 11981.6; price has moved 6.0% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 119.0% higher than yesterday and 98.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.7% higher than yesterday and 17.6% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Germany 30 prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Germany 30 price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.(Emphasis Mine)
Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com
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