News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/ycjWjCETQJ
  • The RBA highlighting several key risks to the local economy in its semi-annual FSR may drive AUD lower against haven-associated currencies despite the expectation of strong Q1 GDP figures out of China. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/kLZ8DQxH3z https://t.co/KubqA24TLH
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/36Sy4DOnFD
  • Though the $SPX hit a record high through Friday, there was little momentum and far less correlation across various risk assets. Can we find more serious traction - or a reversal - amid earnings, inflation-Fed forecasting, US-China trade negotiations? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/04/10/SP-500-Outlook-Carries-Risk-Trends-Dollar-Event-Heavy-on-USDJPY-USDCNH.html https://t.co/AVTM9QvEGQ
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/Gd6eIbE1mb
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/Jf96VhFDOp
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/Rjfdv8jLQV
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/a6qsFOcPUl
  • Build your USD/JPY trading strategy by honing your trading skills. Get your free insight here: https://t.co/hgVq7LwTSH https://t.co/xXZYbWqEwP
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/HUaCpOPird
FX Week Ahead: CAD, GBP, JPY, and NZD Inflation; and Aussie Jobs

FX Week Ahead: CAD, GBP, JPY, and NZD Inflation; and Aussie Jobs

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Data releases are thinning on the calendar this week, with speeches from central bank policymakers making up three of the remaining eight 'high' rated events through Friday.

- Inflation data in focus this week with New Zealand (Monday), British (Wednesday), Japanese (Thursday), and Canadian (Friday) CPI reports due out in the coming days.

- The June Australian labor market report (Thursday) is the only non-inflation 'high' rated data release due the rest of the week.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

07/16 Monday | 22:45 GMT | NZD Consumer Price Index (2Q)

New Zealand is due to see a meaningful rise in Q2’18 inflation figures, lifted by the base effect from higher oil prices as well as a weaker trade-weighted New Zealand Dollar year-over-year. As a result, we’re looking for the Q2’18 New Zealand CPI figure to come in at +1.6% from +1.1% (y/y), the first rebound in three quarters. Nevertheless, inflation is due to remain below the RBNZ’s medium-term target of +2%,leaving little opportunity for 2018 rate hike expectations to rebound in a meaningful way. Currently, rates markets are not pricing in any RBNZ policy tightening in 2018; instead, a 10% chance of a 25-bps rate cut is priced-in for December 2018.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD

07/18 Wednesday | 08:30 GMT | GBP Consumer Price Index (JUN)

According to Bloomberg News, consensus forecasts are calling to see inflation having increased by +0.2% from +0.4% (m/m) and by +2.6% from +2.4% (y/y). Core CPI is expected to have stayed on holdat +2.1% unch (y/y). The report is expected to show the first tick higher in headline inflation since November 2017 (when it moved from +3.0% to +3.1% (y/y)). Now that Bank of England policymakers are embracing the point of view that the Q1’18 growth slowdown was transitory, signs are pointing to a 25-bps rate hike in August. According to overnight index swaps, rates markets are pricing-in 91% chance of a hike next month. As such, given the limited upside in pricing in a hike, a miss could leave a bigger impact on GBP-crosses than a beat.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD

07/19 Thursday | 01:30 GMT | AUD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (JUN)

Australian employment increased by +12K in May, and despite labor market data proving stronger in recent months, focus remains elsewhere for traders. With the unemployment rate set to hold at 5.4%, the Reserve Bank of Australia is probably looking for nothing more than signs of stable growth rather than another blowout print to keep their optimism about the labor market intact. Current forecasts call for +16.5K jobs to have been added last month, in what should amount to another solid labor report overall.

But despite the steadily improving state of the labor market, uneven economic data appears to be a wrinkle in the outlook for the RBA, which continues to note that real wage growth trends aren’t strong enough to provoke a rate hike any time soon. Currently, rates markets are not pricing in any RBA policy tightening in 2018; instead, a 6% chance of a 25-bps rate cut is priced-in for December 2018.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, AUD/USD

07/19 Thursday | 23:30 GMT | JPY National Consumer Price Index (JUN)

Japanese inflation figures are expected to edgehigher, due in at +0.8% in June from +0.7% in March (y/y). Price pressures have been muted for most of 2018, ever since the February reading peaked at the fastest rate of price pressures since April 2015 – when Shinzo Abe government enacted the (unpopular) sales tax reform. Accordingly, a lack of inflationary pressures should help limit market participants’ speculation over an early termination to the BOJ’s easing policies; the BOJ has recently signaled that the end of the extraordinary easing measures will come around the start of FY2019 – next April. Additional soft inflation figures, particularly in the context of inflation rising in other developed economies (Canada, Eurozone, UK, and US) means more Japanese Yen weakness could be in the cards.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY

07/20 Friday | 12:30 GMT | CAD Consumer Price Index (JUN)

Canadian inflation is expected to holdabove the central bank’s medium-term midpoint target of +2.0% in April, set to hold at +2.3% (y/y). Despite recent improvements in the labor market, figures from Statistics Canada showed that overall wage growth is at its lowest since 1990. With both inflation and labor market data trending in the right direction, it seems that the only thing standing between the BOC hiking rates again this year is a resolution to the NAFTA negotiations.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/CAD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD

Read more: US Dollar Start Week on Softer Footing after Retail Sales

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com.

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES