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  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/1zuPdKUmyE
  • AUD/USD is likely to face increased volatility over the coming days as it faces a batch of key event risks going into the end of July. Get your Australian Dollar forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/qFpg0DCxxL https://t.co/quQxg4WBy3
  • The US Dollar outlook against ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso remains bullish amid capital outflows risks as Covid cases swell. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/vRUVxvQP8o https://t.co/cUEkW9BfIP
  • Is investing in your favorite brand or buying its products the better financial move? Read the article for a breakdown. https://t.co/iWOlDAK8cD https://t.co/0uS5VvWj12
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/PW5pCw9dKR
  • The Japanese Yen has been making a comeback, but it may soon resume its decline against the US Dollar as USD/JPY consolidates within a bullish Falling Wedge. Watch for a breakout. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zxRWoNR4lS https://t.co/bXTx0TSRmU
  • BTC/USD treading water sideways, 28600 the big level to watch. ETH/USD working on forming a nice-looking descending wedge. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/H1qOV4FR1P https://t.co/tjutUl7Nt7
  • Gold hasn’t been very active the past few sessions, but that could change next week and provide a stronger trading bias. Get your weekly gold technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/HaEe3i4Sug https://t.co/LsARS2mnFI
  • Market uncertainty sees GBP pairs break out of their ranges. Get your weekly GBP forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/IRO7a6Jv8J https://t.co/4LxWz7sOVF
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/AXKeEsin95
Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD and AUD/USD

Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD and AUD/USD

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

USD/CAD 240min Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar 240min - Loonie

In this week’s Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that, “From a trading standpoint, the near-term risk is weighted to the downside after Friday’s reversal but initial monthly-open support rests just lower at 1.3388.” A brief stint below this level yesterday registered a low at 1.3357 (just pips from the 1.3354 confluence support zone) before reversing sharply higher with USD/CAD breaking above the 61.8% retracement / weekly opening-range high today at 1.3454/56.

Look for support ahead of the 1.3435/37 confluence zone IF price is heading higher on this stretch with near-term topside objectives at the May high at 1.3514 and 1.3537- a breach / close there would be needed to validate a breakout of the monthly range. A break of the lows would expose the 78.6% retracement at 1.3309.

New to Forex? Get started with our Beginners Trading Guide!

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment - Loonie Positioning - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.67 (37.4% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are 29.5% lower than yesterday and 2.9% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 14.4% higher than yesterday and 11.2% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Loonie retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

AUD/USD 120min Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart -

In my most recent Australian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that Aussie had, “filled the Sunday gap with the weekly opening-range set just above the yearly low at 6866.” The range remains intact heading into the close of the close on Thursday with price now poised to mark an outside-day reversal off the lows is Aussie closes at these levels.

Weekly open resistance stands at 6911 backed closely by the upper parallel of the pitchfork we’ve been tracking since the monthly high- ultimately a topside breach / close above 6934 is needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway. A break lower would still risk a drop towards 6854 and 6828- looking for a bigger reaction off one of those levels IF reached. Review my latest AUD/USD Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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