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Aussie Price Outlook: Australian Dollar in Search of Support

Aussie Price Outlook: Australian Dollar in Search of Support

Michael Boutros, Strategist

The Australian Dollar is down more than 3.5% against the US Dollar year-to-date and more than 5.7% off the yearly highs with the decline now approaching the 2016 lows. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

Aussie Price Outlook: Australian Dollar in Search of Support

Technical Outlook: In my latest AUD/USD Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Aussie was approaching key support, “at 7020/42 – a region defined by the yearly open, the 50% retracement of the 2019 range and the yearly close-low. A break / close below is needed to mark resumption of the broader down trend exposing the 2016 low / low-week close at 6827/55.” Note that the 25% line of the broader 2017 / 2018 descending pitchfork also converges on this region and halted the decline last week. Price closed just one pip of the low on Friday at 6866 with Aussie testing this low again today.

Initial resistance stands at the median-line backed by the monthly opening-range low at 6963- a breach there would expose the yearly low-day close at 7005 with broader bearish invalidation set to the yearly / monthly open at 7042/47. Initial support objectives steady at 6855 and the 2016 low at 6827- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

AUD/USD 120min Price Chart

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 120min

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Aussie trading within the confines of anear-term descending pitchfork formation off the late-April high. Price has now filled the Sunday gap with the weekly opening-range set just above the yearly low at 6866. A downside break of this zone exposes 6855 backed by the lower parallel / 6827. Weekly open resistance stands at 6911 with a breach above the range high / upper parallel at ~6934 needed to suggest a larger correction is underway.

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Bottom line: AUD/USD is approaching a key longer-term slope / lateral support and leaves the immediate short-bias vulnerable heading into the 2016 lows. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a move lower. We’ll be on the lookout for possible downside exhaustion on a test of the lower parallels with a breach above the weekly opening-range high needed to shift the near-term focus higher in the Australian Dollar.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment

Aussie Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Positioning vs Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD- the ratio stands at +3.31 (76.8% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since April 18th; price has moved 4.2% lower since then
  • Long positions are0.4% lower than yesterday and 0.6% higher from last week
  • Short positions are2.6% lower than yesterday and 6.3% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Aussie prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant Australia / US Economic Data Releases

Australia / US Economic Calendar - Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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