Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Euro, British Pound – Price Setups:
- AUD/USD is attempting to form a temporary base.
- The consolidation/correction in EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD may not be over yet.
- What is the outlook and the key levels to watch in select AUD crosses?
AUD/USD: Growing odds of a minor rebound
After an initial attempt to break higher in late August, AUD/USD is back around its August lows. However, a new/minor high created at the end of last month raises the prospect of AUD/USD retesting the 200-period moving average on the 240-minute charts (now at about 0.6500).
AUD/USD 240-Minute Chart
Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView
Zooming out, in recent weeks, AUD/USD has been attempting to hold above quite strong support on a downtrend line from the end of 2022. Any break above the August 30 high of 0.6525 could indicate the start of a material consolidation. That’s because, on higher timeframe charts, including the weekly charts, AUD/USD is looking oversold and is showing tentative signs of fatigue. For more discussion, including fundamentals, see “Australian Dollar Looks to Recoup Losses Ahead of CPI; AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY,” published August 29.
EUR/AUD 240-Minute Chart
Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView
EUR/AUD: Consolidation within a broadly bullish phase
The failure of EUR/AUD to resume its uptrend last week could be a sign that the consolidation that started last month isn’t over. EUR/AUD retreated from near a tough hurdle at the end-August highs of around 1.6880, coinciding with the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the 240-minute charts.The cross is now testing a vital floor area: the 200-period moving average, slightly above a horizontal trendline since August (at about 1.6635). Any break below 1.6635 could raise the odds of further losses, initially toward 1.6450.
GBP/AUD 240-Minute Chart
Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView
GBP/AUD: Testing a crucial cushion
GBP/AUD is testing a crucial converged cushion: the 200-period moving average, coinciding with a horizontal trendline from the end of August (at about 1.9450), not too far from an uptrend line from June. A hold above the support area is key for the uptrend to resume. To be sure, a break below isn’t imminent, but any break below would point to an extended consolidation with a slightly weak bias. On the upside, GBP/AUD would need to break above last week’s high of 1.9750 for the bullish bias to resume.
--- Written by Manish Jaradi, Strategist for DailyFX.com
--- Contact and follow Jaradi on Twitter: @JaradiManish
