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An Uptick In Consumer Confidence Coincides With EURUSD Technicals

Friday, 15 August 2008 07:47:32 GMT  |  John Rivera, Currency Analyst

Consumer confidence is expected to improve as Americans are fresh off of receiving their rebate checks and gas prices have started to ease. The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey is predicted to rise to 62.0 from 61.2 which would be consecutive month’s of improvement.

Fundamental Outlook

Consumer confidence is expected to improve as Americans are fresh off of receiving their rebate checks and gas prices have started to ease. The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey is predicted to rise to 62.0 from 61.2 which would be consecutive month’s of improvement. Last month saw a surprise revision higher in the final number, which could set this month’s reading up for a better than expected print. The technical outlook is calling for one more bullish dollar push before giving way to a longer EURUSD move higher. Fundamentals and technicals don’t always agree, but in this instance they appeared to be aligned as a small improvement in confidence will provide bearish price action for the pair. However, giving another week of 400,000 jobless claims and inflation rising to 5.6% confidence could easily sink, accelerating the anticipated dollar bearish sentiment.



The EURUSD reached 1.4815 this morning.  The drop from 1.5701 is in 5 waves and is most likely wave 3 within a 5 wave drop from 1.6039.  A corrective 4th wave advance is expected to unfold over the next several days.  4th wave usually reach at least the 4th wave of one less degree (1.5083 in this case).  The 38.2% of 3 is also a common terminal point for 4th waves (1.5155 in this case).  

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