Gold Price (XAU/USD), Chart, and Analysis
- Fed chair Powell’s testimony to lawmakers will be closely analyzed.
- The latest US Jobs Report will steer the US dollar at the end of the week,
- US Treasury yields nudge lower, helping to prop up gold.
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Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will be up before the US Senate on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, and market participants will be closely following his testimony for further clues about how the central bank thinks the fight against inflation is going. The current market thinking, and pricing, is that interest rates are going to hit 525-550 bps by the end of Q2, up three-quarters of a percentage point from the current target rate of 450-475bps. Any deviation from this expected path of rate hikes will add volatility to the US dollar.
The end of the week sees the release of the latest US Jobs Report (NFPs), a high-importance market event. Last month’s report saw a sizeable increase in jobs created, 517k compared to forecasts of 185k and a prior month’s 260k, bringing the US unemployment rate down to 3.4%, the lowest level since May 1969. Annual revisions to the survey data are seen behind last month’s sharp move so this week’s report will be closely watched to see if the data reverts back to trend. Current market expectations are for 200k new jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate.
The recent move higher in US Treasury yields has halted in the last few days, allowing gold to move higher. The interest-rate sensitive UST 2-year is now trading with a yield of 4.83%, down from a near 16-year high of 4.95% made last week. One technical signal, a gravestone doji on the daily chart, suggests that short-dated US Treasury yields may fall further.
US Treasury 2-Year Yield
Gold is currently trading on either side of $1,850/oz, in the middle of two Fibonacci retracement levels at $1,828/oz. (38.2%) and $1,878/oz. (23.6%). As discussed earlier, lower US Treasury yields have given gold the room to press higher over the last week and the future path of US rates will decide gold’s next move.
Gold Price Daily Chart – March 6, 2023
All Charts via TradingView
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 7% | -6% | 1% |
| Weekly | 12% | -10% | 1% |
Retail Traders Increase Their Short Positions
Retail trader data show 70.52% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.39 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 2.63% higher than yesterday and 7.22% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.34% higher than yesterday and 28.96% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
