US Dollar Price Action Talking Points:
- The US Dollar shot-up to a fresh four-week-high this morning after some comments from incoming ECB President, Christine Lagarde.
- The US Dollar recovery has been supported by soothing tensions around the US-China trade scenario and the S&P has perked right back to resistance at 2930 to go along with that bout of Dollar-strength.
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The US Dollar has clawed back a large portion of the early-August losses and is now testing a key zone of resistance that runs from prior swing-highs around 98.33 up to 98.50. The softening in trade tensions between the US and China have helped as this further diminished expectations for rate cuts out of the Fed later this year. There was also the earlier announcement on the day from incoming ECB President, Christine Lagarde, who said that she didn’t think the European Central Bank had yet hit the lower-bound, implying that the bank could have plans for even more cuts deeper into negative territory. The impact of this one-two combo has been a press-lower in EUR/USD, although it still feels a bit precarious. In this webinar, I looked at setups on either side of the US Dollar as the currency remains in a longer-term rising wedge formation as buyers have continually shied away from the current area of short-term resistance.
US Dollar Weekly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview
EUR/USD: Is this the Break that Bears Have Been Looking For?
EUR/USD is testing three-week-lows on the heels of those Lagarde comments earlier this morning. But – is this going to be enough to finally propel the pair below the 1.1000 psychological level? There’ve already been a series of bear traps that have played-out here over the past few months, and given resistance in the US Dollar, the drive for further losses in EUR/USD could face constraints. As shared, USD/CHF may be a bit more attractive for USD-strength scenarios rather than the prospect of running into another bear trap in EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview
USD/CHF
USD/CHF may be a bit more accommodative, with similar themes as the above, for plays of USD-strength. The prospect of Swiss National Bank intervention to defend the Franc can help to keep the Swiss currency weak and as looked at last week, this could make the pair as a more attractive candidate for long-USD scenarios in the near-term. Prices are currently testing short-term resistance, and support potential at .9863 could quickly re-open the door for bullish strategies in the pair.
USD/CHF Two-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCHF on Tradingview
GBP/USD Holds Support After Boris Brexit Shocker
A bullish trend can be more attractive when even a piece of seemingly very negative news doesn’t produce fresh lows. That’s what happened yesterday around the British Pound on the surprise announcement from Boris Johnson of suspending Parliament. The big question here is positioning-related after a brutal four-month stretch pushed into the month of August. Earlier this month brought a long-term trendline into play and that’s since helped to hold the lows.
GBP/USD Monthly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBPUSD on Tradingview
At this stage, a hold of the 1.2151 low that came into play yesterday can keep the door open for topside strategies, looking for a deeper squeeze of long-term short positions.
GBP/USD Two-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBPUSD on Tradingview
USD/CAD Postures at Lower-Highs
Despite the bullish push in the US Dollar, USD/CAD has merely pushed up to lower-high resistance around the 1.3300 handle. This can keep the door open for short-side swing scenarios in the pair, particularly for strategies around USD-weakness.
USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview
AUD/USD: Can Sellers Finally Take Control?
Aussie came into August clinging to an aggressive down-trend…but a semblance of support held around the .6750, and despite a couple of different breaches below that level, sellers were re-buffed twice already in August. But, on a short-term basis, a bit of resistance has shown at prior support around .6750, and this could keep the door open for bearish strategies. This could be one of the more attractive venues for tracking USD-strength at the moment.
AUD/USD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; AUDUSD on Tradingview
To read more:
Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.
Forex Trading Resources
DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.
If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
