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Trading Forecast for DXY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold Price & More

Trading Forecast for DXY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold Price & More

2018-11-20 12:14:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
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The pullback in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has it facing its first line of trend support, should it break it will have an even bigger line of support below. The Euro is facing off with resistance, but on a pullback may still have another push higher left in it. USD/CAD has a solid series of higher lows and trend-line support which could help it lead its way higher soon. Gold has strengthened with the help of both Dollar weakness and risk aversion, but has resistance to contend with.

Technical Highlights:

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) has two lines of trend support
  • EUR/USD at resistance, but may have another leg left
  • USD/CAD has a nice series of HHs/HLs, trend support
  • Gold price strength nearing first line of resistance

See the DailyFX Q4 Forecasts to find out where our team of analysts think your favorite markets and currencies are headed as the year quickly draws towards its conclusion.

US Dollar Index (DXY) has two lines of trend support

The back-tracking in the US Dollar Index (DXY) is coming off an increasingly important top-side trend-line from a year ago. This has a trend-line from late September under fire right now and is considered the first real test of support during this current round of weakness. A failure to hold will then have the April trend-line in focus (Euro dependent, see below).

Between the April trend-line and November 2017 t-line, price could become wedged up through year-end, which means we won’t see a clear USD trend emerge in the coming weeks, but the converging price action could set up for an explosive move to start 2019.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart (Trend-lines converging)

US Dollar Index (DXY) daily chart, trend-lines converging

See what key fundamental and technical factors are expected to drive the Dollar through year-end in the Q4 USD Forecast

EUR/USD at resistance, but may have another leg left

EUR/USD is of course moving opposite the DXY index, and as 57% of its weighting it has a heavy influence. The surge off the low in the Euro looks poised to keep things pointed positively in the near-term towards the low-11500s resistance area. A smallish pullback may offer traders a chance to catch a continuation trade higher.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (Pullback may lead to low-11500s)

EUR/USD daily chart, pullback may lead to low-11500s

See what key fundamental and technical factors are expected to drive EUR/USD through year-end in the Q4 Euro Forecast

USD/CAD has a nice series of HHs/HLs, trend support

The USD/CAD chart isn’t ultra-appealing from the standpoint of having a lot of conviction at the moment one way or the other, but the series of higher highs and higher lows coupled with the pair of trend-lines it has riding under those HHs and HLs, does present a set of technicals for traders to work with. Hold support and the upward trend stays intact, break below the trend-line and lower-low at 13127 and risk becomes skewed lower.

USD/CAD 4-hr Chart (HHs, HLs, Trend-lines)

USD/CAD 4-hr chart, HHs, HLs, trend-lines

Gold price strength nearing first line of resistance

After tagging off on channel support gold has benefited from Dollar and equity market weakness the past few sessions, but the rally may be in for a test with resistance just ahead via a trend-line from April. Even on a climb above the t-line there should be plenty of stiff opposition close from around 1235 up to 1243. Gold may find itself getting bottled up again between support and resistance.

See what key fundamental and technical factors are expected to drive Gold through year-end in the Q4 Gold Forecast

Gold Daily Chart (Channel support, trend-line/price resistance)

gold daily chart, channel support, trend-lines/price resistance

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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