Technical Outlook: Diverging USD-pairs, EUR/GBP/JPY-crosses, Gold & More
USD-pairs are seeing a bit of divergence among them, leaving opportunities diverse. Several major cross-rates are responding to this behavior in a major way. Gold & silver continue to coil towards a price move which should commence soon.
- USD-pairs showing divergence
- Several key cross-rates reflecting divergence with momentum-moves
- Gold/silver seeking resolution from symmetrical triangles
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We are seeing divergence among the major USD-pairs, with AUD/USD and NZD/USD leading strongly to the downside and in the process of breaking significant long-term trend-lines. If these daily breaks hold then more weakness is likely to follow, with ~7480 as then next target for Aussie and ~6680 for Kiwi.
EUR/USD is very close to completely busting the ‘head-and-shoulders’ top, but needs to maintain 11700 if it is to try and rally above resistance around the 11876-mark. GBP/USD is gaining a bid off a pair of trend-lines extending higher since earlier this year, but remains range-bound overall between ~13000/300. Will avoid for now. USD/CAD is hugging a trend-line off the September low but if it doesn’t get into gear soon we could see it fail to hold. A close below the trend-line will bring a lower-low below 12666 into play. Inflation data today could determine the trend-line’s fate. USD/CHF is putting in a short-term bearish sequence on the 4-hr after breaking down out of a bullish channel on the daily time-frame. Further weakness should lead to a move into the sizable support surrounding 9800.
USD/JPY continues to remain in a downward channel on the 4-hr after breaking lower out of a wedge formation, looking for ~11175 on continued selling. Stay within the confines of the channel and the outlook remains in favor of sellers.
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EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD are a pair of crosses which are fully displaying the divergence we are seeing in some of the key USD-pairs. With 15600 and 17200, respectively, in the rear-view mirror more upside is likely to follow. GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD are eyeing higher levels not seen since ‘Brexit’. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are both leading the JPY group lower, others could soon follow.
Gold and silver continue to work their way towards the apex of symmetrical triangles. A breakout is quickly closing in. We’ll stand aside for now until we see a breakout develop, first, as it’s a guessing game at this juncture which way precious metals will go. But they are set up to go.
The Nikkei put in a bounce the past couple of days, but looks at best to go into consolidation-mode, and at worst more selling. Bottom line, upside at the moment looks limited. The DAX is trying to make good on a reversal-bar off support, but remains vulnerable to further selling. A close below 12900 puts bears back in control. The S&P 500 and Dow remain in limbo, searching for direction. We looked a possible bearish sequence (‘head-and-shoulders’) on the hourly chart in the Dow, but it could become a consolidation. It would require a break of 23242 to trigger the topping sequence.
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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