Trading Outlook for US Dollar, JPY-crosses, Gold & More
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The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recently found buyers in a big-picture support zone, but so far upward momentum has been suspect and is taking on the shape of a correction. On that, EURUSD (~57% of DXY) is doing the same, but in reverse. From a trading perspective, the bias in the short-term is still lower fo the euro, but with some time a bull-flag coming at horizontal and trend-line support could develop. GBPUSD sunk into a confluence of support yesterday and is attempting to bounce, confidence level isn’t real high on this pair. AUDUSD and NZDUSD are both making attempts at bouncing from support as well, with the former holding the brighter outlook of the two. USDJPY has sprung back to life with the help of North Korea/U.S. tensions easing. It’s trading at resistance currently, but could have put in a trade-able low last week leading to higher prices later.
EURGBP has one of the cleaner set-ups out there with a rising wedge developing around important resistance from last year. It still needs to trigger, but a breach of the bottom-side trend-line would be our cue to look for a decline to unfold. It could always squeeze higher out of the pattern, so while in a resistance zone it will be important to wait for a confirmed break first. EURJPY is also of interest as it traded up into a confluence of resistance lines and put in a bearish ‘doji’ formation on the 4-hr. It could be in the process of carving out a ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern to trigger later. GBPJPY is in retest-mode of a broken trend-line dating back to last year, and is poised to turn lower soon.
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Gold and silver have weakened in recent sessions, but remain inside a bullish upward tilting channel. As long as the lower parallel holds then the path of least resistance for precious metals is higher. Crude oil found support right at the 47-level we’ve talked about on numerous occasions. Stay above and oil could move higher, but a break below may set off another swoon lower like the ones we’ve seen more than once this year.
Equity indices aren’t the easiest to get a handle on these days. The S&P 500 recaptured important levels over 2450, thus giving it a neutral to bullish bias. The DAX continues to bounce, but is headed for major resistance in the vicinity of 12300/340. The FTSE 100 is trying to recapture the Feb 2016 trend-line after bouncing off support around 7300.
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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