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Today, we started out where we most often do by focusing on the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues down the drain and is trading around the 94 level which is key. The thinking is we may see a bounce develop here, but we might see another 1-2% down-move before finding a sustainable low. EURUSD is treading in the 11600/700 area which is certainly a big spot to keep an eye on how price action reacts. Not favoring new entries at this time, either short or long. GBPUSD is trying to turn higher from a pullback, and should it successfully carve out a swing-low it will make for a higher low and lend towards seeing another advance commence. USDJPY is at an interesting juncture, but clarity is lacking at the moment.
Turning to precious metals, gold and silver continue to have a bid with the help of strong pressure on USD. Both metals are running up into important areas which could cap what is still viewed as a correction before another push lower.
Crude oil put in a good-looking reversal bar on an attempt to clear 47. The failure to hold above the eyed threshold was a scenario we outlined earlier in the week in the commodities and indices webinar. As long as yesterday’s reversal bar stands then lower prices are expected.
The DAX is the primary focus here among indices, as the index trades very near the neckline of a daily head-and-shoulders pattern and the gap from the first-round of the French elections. A drop below the neckline and into the gap should lead to down-side follow-through. The S&P is stuck up on the highs between a pair of trend-lines. The picture is somewhat indecisive from a tactical standpoint. Will stand aside until better clarity.
For the full outlook, please see the video above…
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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