News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.13%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 67.63%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/5dXf6fqsQz
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.41% Germany 30: 0.36% FTSE 100: 0.34% US 500: -0.05% Wall Street: -1.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/fFsUz2EvOi
  • The US Dollar is continuing to strength today. The $DXY has risen above the 90.80 level to its highest point since last Wednesday. $USD https://t.co/OFWBlH3loM
  • quite the reversal in commod currencies over the past two days. $USDCAD from falling wedge support to resistance. this tl held a number of inflections earlier this month, now being tested through https://t.co/O2zqFkYz9Y https://t.co/Rljf0c6JE3
  • $USDCHF rose to trading above the 0.9100 level for the first time since November. $USD $CHF https://t.co/afJSa3Ap5h
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.86%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 67.99%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/7CenEe3hcL
  • Hey traders! Wrap up your week with a quick market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/9Sfqv1U0TJ
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -2.02% Gold: -2.70% Silver: -4.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/pOc7rwbN4x
  • Forex Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.41% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.45% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.51% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.76% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.57% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.85% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/wtEBvYAAG2
  • A pullback off confluence uptrend support threatens a larger pullback here but keeps the broader trade constructive while within this formation. Get your $btc market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/ScHuboiZRB https://t.co/gNiGelWKTM
Volatility Offers the Better Complacency Contrarian Reading

Volatility Offers the Better Complacency Contrarian Reading

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• By many metrics, the market has pushed the reach for yield to unsustainable levels

• Benchmarks like the S&P 500 can continue to rise to ever greater extremes on yeild reach but volatility has limits

Beyond extreme lows in volatility measures, a 'flattening of the activity curve' reflects more than negligence

Sign up for Tuesday's Q&A or see what other live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on theDailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Even if the speculative masses agreed that benchmarks like US equity indexes were stetched and far beyond their 'fair' fundamental value, it would not imply a countdown to the inevitable correction. Eventually, markets rebalance; and so too will the Dow and S&P 500. However, 'eventually' is not a time frame conducive to traders who need at least an idea of timing on their positions. Ultimately, there are no magic indicators that can measure the precise - or even proximate - times for a market reversal. Extremes can grow more extreme depending on the collective tolerence of the crowd. That said, there are better measures for a contrarian read for sentiment than stock indexes.

Volatility measures are arguably a better gauge for marking extremes. Versus an asset like the S&P 500 which doesn't hold a theoretic upper limit, the VIX has a natural low and an absolute lower bound (zero). To push this benchmark below 10 would require increasingly extraordinary circumstance. At its root, volatility measures the level of risk and general uncertainty in a market. It can also be viewed as the cost of insurance. Beyond a certian level, it becomes clear that practical protection is being sacrificed for speculative gains. Reaching even further, traders begin to use this asset as an outlet to further leverage for marginally higher returns at the risk of turning a haven into an amplifier to risk.

Taking it a step further, a reference to volatility further out can offer a clearer lead on risk. While short-term measures of activity can outstrip their more distant counterparts (say one week relative to one month) around high profile event risk, it is a temporary state of affairs. Outside the the anticipation of events like the Brexit and US Presidential election, the material deflation of risk relative to immediate market concerns reflects a deeper complacency that suggests an even more extreme shelf life or an expontential increase in exposure to complacency. We look at the influence and capacity of volatility as an extreme measure in today's Strategy Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES