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Dollar Wavering Despite Fed Certainty, Pound and Oil Ready for Key Events

Dollar Wavering Despite Fed Certainty, Pound and Oil Ready for Key Events

2016-11-30 05:17:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The ICE Dollar Index (DXY) slipped Tuesday - despite positive data - into a head-and-shoulders pattern

GBP/USD and other Sterling crosses are well positioned for a catalyst with the BoE Financial Stability Report ahead

Oil faces the most comprehensive and decisive event risk in a packed economic docket with the OPEC meeting

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

The probability of a rate hike from the Fed at the December 14th FOMC meeting has held at 100 percent - according to Fed Fund futures - for a few weeks. How much run does a fully-priced nudge in US rates afford the US Dollar though? The ICE Dollar Index has already shifted from relentless bull trend to consolidation at decade-plus highs despite the fundamental tail wind. To extend the Greenback's climb, the hawkishness needs to extend out to the subsequent rate decisions - February or March of 2017. And, to truly bolster the prospect of an acceleration in policy tightening, the data needs to be far more convincing to the naturally-skeptical market. So where does that leave the Dollar?

This past session, we had a run of US event risk that was nothing less than impressive. An upgrade in 3Q GDP is just a follow up on previously released data, but the November Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey rise to a 9-year high was a significant change. Despite the meaningful rise in confidence and upgrade in wage growth expectations (what I consider 'virtuous inflation'), the more distant rate view ticked down and the Dollar slipped. The DXY has carved out a conspicuous head-and-shoulders formation in the aftermath of the US election rally. Can event risk like the PCE inflation figure, US consumer income and spending, or the ADP employment change due Wednesday shift the probabilities. Unlikely. That presents a fundamental and technical opportunity imbalance.

I will be watching USD/JPY and EUR/USD the most closely given their fundamental exposure and comparable technical picture to the DXY itself. Meanwhile, the docket is loaded with scheduled event risk across the globe. Of the many listings on the calendar, there are a few highlights for exceptional volatility risk. The Bank of England's Financial Stability Report can offer another post-Brexit financial assessment to a currency that is facing congestion across the board - I'm drawn to GBP/USD and EUR/GBP. Top listing is the OPEC meeting which has drawn an incredible amount of rumor and speculation. We discuss the top event listings for volatility potential and cross check it to technical opportunity in today's Trading Video.

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