News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.64% Germany 30: 0.04% US 500: 0.00% Wall Street: 0.00% France 40: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/uZ1HjcIJ4q
  • GBP/USD continues to fail around the 1.3400 level and is unlikely to make a confirmed break higher ahead of any trade talk confirmation. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/EWLFXK1q3q https://t.co/4XSSNxobMo
  • The Gold price sell-off has broken below key technical barriers and leaves the outlook for XAU/USD weighted to the downside heading into the close of the month. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/3YLcAFlr5f https://t.co/1uFb9UkDvV
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.48% Gold: -1.28% Silver: -2.80% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/OvThGydQBs
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Yq6wLxhblV
  • Vaccine Optimism Sparks 28% Increase in Oil Prices. Get your #crudeoil market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/F3AlSkniXk https://t.co/qevY4Gh6o9
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.51% US 500: 0.47% Wall Street: 0.26% Germany 30: -0.15% France 40: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/wxM2SJQrDE
  • EUR/GBP IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short EUR/GBP for the first time since Nov 20, 2020 15:00 GMT when EUR/GBP traded near 0.89. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to EUR/GBP strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ouaMBSjKk2
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.75%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 77.98%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/mXHYu1zN9M
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.59% Gold: -1.39% Silver: -3.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/xchHegk5kh
Dollar Wavering Despite Fed Certainty, Pound and Oil Ready for Key Events

Dollar Wavering Despite Fed Certainty, Pound and Oil Ready for Key Events

2016-11-30 05:17:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

• The ICE Dollar Index (DXY) slipped Tuesday - despite positive data - into a head-and-shoulders pattern

GBP/USD and other Sterling crosses are well positioned for a catalyst with the BoE Financial Stability Report ahead

Oil faces the most comprehensive and decisive event risk in a packed economic docket with the OPEC meeting

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

The probability of a rate hike from the Fed at the December 14th FOMC meeting has held at 100 percent - according to Fed Fund futures - for a few weeks. How much run does a fully-priced nudge in US rates afford the US Dollar though? The ICE Dollar Index has already shifted from relentless bull trend to consolidation at decade-plus highs despite the fundamental tail wind. To extend the Greenback's climb, the hawkishness needs to extend out to the subsequent rate decisions - February or March of 2017. And, to truly bolster the prospect of an acceleration in policy tightening, the data needs to be far more convincing to the naturally-skeptical market. So where does that leave the Dollar?

This past session, we had a run of US event risk that was nothing less than impressive. An upgrade in 3Q GDP is just a follow up on previously released data, but the November Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey rise to a 9-year high was a significant change. Despite the meaningful rise in confidence and upgrade in wage growth expectations (what I consider 'virtuous inflation'), the more distant rate view ticked down and the Dollar slipped. The DXY has carved out a conspicuous head-and-shoulders formation in the aftermath of the US election rally. Can event risk like the PCE inflation figure, US consumer income and spending, or the ADP employment change due Wednesday shift the probabilities. Unlikely. That presents a fundamental and technical opportunity imbalance.

I will be watching USD/JPY and EUR/USD the most closely given their fundamental exposure and comparable technical picture to the DXY itself. Meanwhile, the docket is loaded with scheduled event risk across the globe. Of the many listings on the calendar, there are a few highlights for exceptional volatility risk. The Bank of England's Financial Stability Report can offer another post-Brexit financial assessment to a currency that is facing congestion across the board - I'm drawn to GBP/USD and EUR/GBP. Top listing is the OPEC meeting which has drawn an incredible amount of rumor and speculation. We discuss the top event listings for volatility potential and cross check it to technical opportunity in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES