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Oil, Cad, US Equity Price Action Setups

Oil, Cad, US Equity Price Action Setups

2016-06-09 20:03:00
James Stanley, Strategist

Talking Points:

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- In this webinar, we used price action to look at numerous markets in the effort of devising near-term strategy for the weeks ahead. The big expected driver for markets is next week’s FOMC and BoJ meetings, and this was at the center of today’s discussions whilst planning through multiple potential scenarios.

- We started off by looking at one of the biggest drivers across markets at the moment, and that’s the outsized decline that’s been seen in the US Dollar. This decline is largely driven by weakening rate expectations out of the United States, and with FOMC on the docket for next week we have a prime time to get news on where the FOMC is expecting rates to move.

- The first market that we looked at was Oil, and while I have a personally bearish macro bias on the market, price action is decidedly bullish so the options are to either a) look for ways to get long or b) wait for price action to illustrate a potential short setup, and then strike it. At this point, it looks as though the prior resistance point at the psychological $50 level may come in as ‘higher-low’ support; and should USD weakness continue as we move towards next week’s FOMC meeting, this could give continued top-side run to Oil prices.

- We looked at USD/CAD next, and there is a confluent zone of potential support as defined by longer-term Fibonacci retracements from 1.2572-1.2620; and should price action show support in this zone, a long setup may become attractive.

- We then looked at American equities, starting with the S&P 500, where that recent bout of USD-weakness has continued to propel prices to higher-highs. This is bullish, so like the setup discussed in Oil as price action is showing continued strength, there are really only two ways to proceed: 1) look for the top-side setup or 2) wait for price action to move bearish, and then look to get short. However, a different American equity market may look riper for short-side plays, as the Nasdaq 100 has been putting in lower-highs while also finding resistance on a well-defined trend-line and a Fibonacci retracement.

Oil, Cad, US Equity Price Action Setups

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley

--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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