Talking Points:
• Economists expect the ECB to further lower the deposit rate deeper into negative territory
• At critical rate decisions last March and December, QE and negative rates led to unexpected Euro and DAX reactions
• EUR/USD hasn't tumbled into this meeting, but Euribor rates suggest dovish projections may be extreme
See how retail traders are positioning in EURUSD ahead of the ECB decision and after on DailyFX or bring the figures to your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.
The last time the ECB announced it was upgrading its stimulus effort (December), the market responded with a EUR/USD rally and a DAX reversal. That is not the traditional reaction we have come to expect from the most dovish monetary policy efforts in the global markets. While the European Central Bank is arguably the most aggressive dove of the largest monetary policy groups, market expectations can and will warp the interpretation of policy decisions and price reaction. Heading into the group's March 10 policy meeting, economists once again expect an escalation of the accommodative policy stance. What is the market expecting from this important policy decision and how will it impact the Euro and sentiment through the global financial system? We discuss that in today's Strategy Video.
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