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What to Follow and Trade When the Election Dust Settles

What to Follow and Trade When the Election Dust Settles

2016-11-09 02:20:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Risk trends will be jostled through the next 24 to 48 hours, but the long-term course may be set
  • Dollar focus will likely draw greater interest from the Fed's bearings than direct election view
  • The RBNZ rate decision is another skewed event risk with the Kiwi rising despite expected cut

See the DailyFX Analysts' 4Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Global capital markets are watching every headline related to the US Presidential Election, but this event will soon cool a dominant market mover. Trading through the volatile polls and speculation of the election is exceptionally risk, but the aftermath of the event will carry its influence according to how far it alters the medium-term balance of sentiment. And, that impact may very well be limited given the context of global currents. In the 24 to 48 hours after the polls close and the victor declared; the short-term volatility response will ease. What remains will be the medium-term view based on growth, exposure, leverage, rates of return and other aspects that have projected an increasingly rocky investment landscape.

While the bearing and momentum on risk trends will take center stage through the near-term future, other themes will regain traction as effective market movers. Fed rate forecasts will certainly be swayed by the level of sentiment; and the Dollar has shown little direct response to last week's FOMC statement and firm NFPs which pushed the probability of a December 14th rate hike to 80 percent. Alternatively, a falter in risk would easily unsettle the highly sensitive policy body and likely crush chances of a follow up to last year's 'liftoff'.

Outside the US market influence, matters like Brexit and the upcoming RBNZ rate decision represent noteworthy theme and event risk. From the former, we learned this past session that the UK Supreme Court set a day for the appeal to the High Court ruling that found Parliament has say over the terms of the separation from the European Union. As for the New Zealand central bank decision, speculation is running high for a rate cut to a record low 1.75 percent, yet the Kiwi Dollar has climbed despite the dovish views. What does that skew mean for market reaction? We discuss all of this in today's Trading Video.

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