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S&P 500 Primed for a Break, But When and How Far Will it Go?

S&P 500 Primed for a Break, But When and How Far Will it Go?

2016-03-23 02:31:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Market-priced risk has collapsed despite a backdrop of concerns - a situation that implies dangerous complacency
  • Pacing the 'risk-oriented' assets, the S&P 500 looks ready to break from its remarkably consistent climb
  • A Pound drop has disarmed immediate bullish opportunities but the docket ahead looks thin for major catalysts

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

Risk continues to run higher. Whether confidence is speculative appetite; equities, high-yield, carry, emerging market assets and commodities have all extended their marked recovery. Few represent the thematic push better than the S&P 500 and its familiar and remarkably steady five-week channel. This also happens to offer the clearest picture of the risks that this rise poses. A break is almost inevitable on both a technical and fundamental basis. Yet, the bigger picture doesn't provide well for a launch higher. Furthermore, liquidity conditions are likely to sabotage any decisive move from the constricting technical bounds. That should shape the trading we intend to do. Short-term setups will account for the week-end holiday conditions - even if prominent medium-term term setups look primed. A bullish or bearish break on 'risk' has their benefactors. Meanwhile, event risk has delayed my interests in Pound-based pairs (GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPNZD in particular) while the docket ahead offers limited scope for definitive motivation. What should we watch for and how do we approach markets given our current conditions? We discuss that in today's Trading Video.

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